Seeking Alpha by Adding Beta

Last summer was filled with the buzz of "Barbenheimer" with the simultaneous release of Barbie and Oppenheimer , which gave both movies tremendous box-office success. It was American and Hollywood marketing at its best. This single event revitalized the post-pandemic theatre-going experience. However, as awards season started, the Academy and other award committee members side-stepped the glitter of Barbie and heaped tons of nominations on Oppenheimer (personally, I feel that Barbie deserved nominations in at least a few categories). Oppenheimer got 13 nominations - one of the highest-matching records of movies like Gandhi , Titanic , and Lord of the Rings . It may end up winning in 7-8 categories. As has been the tradition over the last few years, here are my predictions for the top 7 categories: Best Picture: Oppenheimer Best Director: Christopher Nolan ( Oppenheimer ) – This would be Nolan's first win despite giving some of the all-time best films like Inception ,...

Finally the markets have reached the S&P 5000 milestone target last week, as predicted in my last blog " Are we there yet? ". It was a forgone conclusion that it would happen sometime sooner than later. The question is what's next since many investors are feeling anxious to keep invested or get into the market (by some accounts trillions are on sidelines) but at the same time are getting FOMO (fear of missing out). To answer this question, we would have to look at the Nineties... But before that, let's look at the biggest US sporting spectacle of Super Bowl on Feb 11. This year it is going to be the biggest event, with two of the best NFL teams (Niners vs Chiefs) playing. Each of these have storied quarterbacks (Mr. Irrelevant Brody and 2 times Super Bowl winner and MVP Mahomes). It's a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl when Chiefs beat Niners. Here are some the records: Record estimated TV viewership of 118 million Record cost of $7 million for 30-second adverti...

NFL championships games are today and first month of new year is almost over...While first week of new year was bumpy for markets, it soon recovered its footing and reached new all time highs and itching towards breaking milestone of 5000. Almost 6 weeks back I wrote about " Goldilocks economy taking S&P to 5K "...depending on mega-cap tech earnings in next two weeks, it could happen by the time America gets glued to Super Bowl...The expectations are rematch of  2012 Super Bowl between Ravens vs Niners (Ravens won that year 34-31).  This game was also called "Harbaugh Bowl" since two Harbaugh brothers were head coaches of two playing teams. But one could never predict what could happen in today's games since all 4 teams are great teams and deserve to play Super Bowl. In the end it would come down to showing up and playing their best games...Only Lions is the team had not won Super Bowl yet (one of the 12 teams) even though it had won 2 pre-Super Bowl NFL cha...

Wishing you a joyful New Year filled with laughter, love, and unforgettable moments, surrounded by cherished family and friends. May the 2024 bring similar gains as in 2023! I had great 2 weeks break with travels to Turkey with family and then solo trip to Palm Springs. Both places are amazing and definitely worth a visit if you get chance. Talking about gains in 2023 - Here is recap of 2023.. Inflation fallen below 4% and heading towards 3% Unemployment firmly below 4% Real wages growing above 4% GDP growth around 3% Markets: S&P notching one of the best year with 24% gains while Nasdaq doing even better with 40% gains thanks to Magnificent-7 (or TAMMANNA) many of which had triple digit gains My personal recommendations did exceptionally well - many of which were up by high double digits (e.g. INTC) and some of them had triple digit gains (e.g. META) All in all - 2023 was great year.  As calendar changed to 2024, what's in store for new year? This is election year in many coun...

Markets are having a record breaking dream run of 7 weeks of positive returns since Nov CPI report came out. Last week's Fed meeting confirmed already well known fact that interest rates have peaked and there are at least 3 rate cuts coming in 2024. Economy feels like "Goldilocks" economy - not too hot, not too cold...it's just perfect the way Goldilocks would have liked. Let's look at some of the key economic indicators. Unemployment dipped to 3.7% but wage growth has slowed down. Good Inflation dipped to 3.1% and all indicators pointing to further reduction. In fact if recent declining hosing rents are taken into account, the inflation may already be closer to 2.5%. Good Earnings were better than expected. Good Q3 GDP report was hot but Oct/Nov trends show that there is slowdown coming but enough to cause recession. Good Holiday shopping season had good start. Good Interest rates coming down. Fed is indicating 3 rate cuts. Good Small caps have finally started ca...

I imagined today' day (Nov 19, 2023) little differently than what it turned out to be..had a watch gathering at my place with few friends for India vs Aus ICC Cricket World Cup Final. Both teams deserved to be in the final - India winning all games in this tournament and Aus winning last 8 games after initially losing 2 games at start of tournament. The match was being played at the biggest stadium in the world (over 132,000 capacity) and over billion people tuning in...maybe most watched single sports event ever. After Australia won the toss, they choose to field (that's what most likely India wanted). India started well but then wickets kept dropping and India ended with total of 240 all out. That's when all of us knew that the dream of winning third world cup is over...despite one of the best bowling squad India ever had....The score was just not enough even for the best bowling to defend against one of the most professional and mentally strong team....No wonder Australi...

If you have been following most watched tournament in the World, you would have guessed what today's title mean. Yes - it's about Cricket World Cup. India made history by beating then World Champion - West Indies in 1983. Repeated history again by beating stalwarts like Australia and England in 2011. In 2023 World Cup,  India has not lost a single game (out of 8) and is sitting at top of the table. Indian batting and more importantly Indian bowling have dominated this world cup. One more league match remaining. But semifinals are already decided. India would be playing New Zealand in semi and South Africa and Australia will face each other in other semi. Final would be played on Nov 19.  I am hoping and praying that India continues her dominance and win semi first and then win final to claim 3rd World Cup tille and repeat the history again in 2023!  And like SuperBowl indicator, let's look at Cricket World Cup Indicatior  Last two times India won Cricket World Cup, m...

September kept up its reputation of worst performing month for stock markets (October gets the bad press due to major crashes but its not even in top 3 worst performing months). Why Sept? It could be a good topic for Behavior Economics PhD - I am sure someone must have done some thesis on this. S&P fell by 4.9% while Nasdaq fell by 5.9%. While markets are still meaningfully up for the year thanks to performance of Magnificent Seven (new combo post FANG), what's in store for last quarter of 2023? That would mostly depends on two factors - direction of inflation and interest rates. And continuation of AI momentum - sizzle or fizzle? For today,  let's focus on first factor. Fed Chairman Powell's in-famous comment about "Inflation is transitory" caused major credibility loss for Federal Reserve. Since then Fed is doing everything to make sure that markets get the message that they are serious on bringing down inflation. Based on latest readings they are reasonably...

First - Happy Independence Day for India (Aug 15) and Pakistan (Aug 14). Last week was historical week for Indian Film industry which collected over $100 M on box-office and brought in millions of people to movie theaters with releases like Gadar2, OMG2 and Jailer. I happen to see all three of them. They are decent crowd-pleasers - the main stars in all of them are over 55. In particular I liked OMG2 in the way a difficult topic such as need for sex-education in Indian schools was presented. Pankaj Tripathi's performance is outstanding.  Now onto three "i" factors  The usual pattern of markets going downwards or sideways is on display during the dog days of summer...The earnings season is about to wrap up and by most accounts earnings were quite ok as compared to expectations. The companies which beat got rewarded and companies which miss got penalized...nothing new. But despite initial reactions, many stocks gave up all their days due to continued upward march of interes...

About 2 years back coming out of COVID pandemic, I wrote blog titled " New Roarin' 20s.."  It covered what happened in 1920s and what are the factors now which would trigger new roaring 20s. Do check out the blog...almost all factors are valid even now. 2022 went sideways due to inflation pressures which triggered historical steep rate hikes by central banks which led to tech companies taking more measured approach and laying off 200,000 employees....all of that changed in Nov'22 when ChatGPT was launched...even though I had mentioned AI/ML as one of the factor in my previous blog, ChatGPT really captured the imagination of the world and changed the outlook of AI instantly similar to what Netscape did with the Internet and iPhone did with the mobile. The singular concept of "Language is the Interface" made AI accessible instantly to billions of normal people....And now without mentioning AI, no talk starts or ends in tech world..and despite onsite of most-aw...

Today morning I went for my usual walk to neighborhood Farmer's market - it was pleasant cool spring morning with fog/clouds on the Evergreen hills! After brisk walk rewarded by bagel and Cappuccino, started thinking of last week's flurry of earnings results by tech giants, potential seizure of First Republic by FDIC and general direction of economy...that's the premise of this blog! Last two weeks tech giants except Apple and Nvidia have reported. Here is quick report-card Tesla: OK but markets did not like constant price cuts to stimulate demand Alphabet: Earnings were good especially with GCP reporting profits first time. Google Cloud is about 11-12% of revenues and 25% of cost but growing at 20-30%. Clearly established itself as 3rd option. Markets would have preferred more clarity on cost cutting and plans to get into leadership position in Generative AI. So stock reaction was muted Microsoft: It delivered on all fronts with Azure still growing at 27%, buzz with OpenAI...

First quarter of 2023 is over and it was quite an interesting one with so many unexpected events...almost similar to first quarters of past few years...Markets don't like unpexcted events - so it was surprising that with so many expected events, markets did pretty well especially Nasdaq with double digit gains. What's in store for rest of 2023...for that let's look at some ABC...factors! A I: ChatGPT and followup GPT-4 captured the imagination of world in just few months and revived the excitement around AI similar to what Netscape did for Internet and iPhone did for mobile. Those two events marked the pivotal moments and changed the world and lives of billions of people forever. It's still too early for AI to decide if this is indeed such moment...we will know that in next decade or two. But for now there is definitely lots of excitement with every company jumping onto the bandwagon of AI to project that they are not left behind...Companies which would benefit from thi...

What a week of events - no one would have predicted that the 16th largest bank in USA (Silicon Valley Bank) would be no more in less than 48 hours....almost exactly 15 years after the events of Bear Sterns collapse...While one more (again California) bank failed (Silvergate) no one shed any tears due to its high-risk ties to Crypto world...But SVB was no small bank...in fact it was the "go to" bank for last 40 years for startups, VC and many Silicon Valley companies... but what started as typical course of action - upcoming rating downgrade due to loss on treasury holdings, attempt to raise funds to cover capital requirements turn into classic bank run as depicted in  all time classic 1946 movie "It's wonderful life"...Only this time it was not a small town bank..it was one of the premier bank in most innovative place on the Earth...maybe that's what caused its downfall...it was bank for VCs and startups and they exited in droves with slightest doubt and mov...

It's that Sunday of the year when all of America is in party mood no matter what's happening in the nation or around the world. Super Bowl is one event which had helped Americans forgot the gloomy news of 2001 dot-com bust, 2009 great recession and recently pandemic induced lockdowns. Over 100 million Americans would be tuned to TV with family and friends and enjoying the much deserved matchup - Colts vs Chiefs. This is also significant in terms of generational shift. It's first time when the baton of quarterbacks would be passed from likes of Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers to young, energetic African-Americans - Jalen Hurts (Age 24) and Patrick Mahomes (Age: 27). Their styles, risk-taking attitudes and running should make this an exciting matchup.  And when it comes to economic impact of Super Bowl - here are some numbers: Boost to local economy of host city Phoenix is going to be around $600-700M 325 million gallons of beer would be consumed on Super Bowl day - that's almost...

First of all, Happy New Year...Due to holiday travels my new year blog got delayed..it's about time to write first blog of the new year...and last two weeks of action in markets, inflation and general economy definitely deserve a look and make some predictions for what's ahead in 2023. What a change on the calendar makes a difference in sentiment...technically year change should not matter ..it's abstract boundary created by humans to manage their life...animals don't have any calendar year..they have only seasons..but humans also invest in markets and somehow change of year makes change in psych of investors..as if all the worries of 2022 are over and it's new start. Well if it helps change the sentiment, I am all for it every now and then! Let's look at some of the trends and make some predictions. Inflation trend is definitely downwards and it can reach near desired fed target of 2% - at least when it comes to core CPI. I won't be surprised that by end of...

First Avatar movie got released in 2009 in midst of market turmoil due to housing crisis. 13 years later,  "Avatar - The way of Water" got released this week - again in the midst of post-pandemic, inflation driven market turmoil. James Cameron took 13 years to make second Avatar movie and I am sure it would be another blockbuster like first one (needs to make $2B box-office collection just to break even). But "Fed" up sequel seems to have repeated in just 4 years. Last time I wrote with exact same topic was in Oct 2018.  Most of the content in that blog could be repeated here. Markets are frustrated that Fed is again behind the curve by continuing to raise rates till it reaches 5.1% even though everyone fears that economy is heading into recession. As reaction to Fed meeting and Powell's Q&A session, markets crashed to send a message - enough! But Powell's fed wants to make sure that inflation is really coming down and willing to take the risk of "t...

Last week was one of the most eventful week - elections, crypto crash, soft inflation triggered massive rally in stock markets, layoffs at Meta and many other tech peers, slow counting of votes and of course the chaos at Twitter.....each of these can be a blog topic. But let's focus on how FTX "House of Cards" came crashing due to "Game of Thrones" in Crypto Universe! I have written about Cryptos in my previous blogs  " Coinbase IPO : Netscape or Webvan moment for Crypto",  " Crypto-currencies : Fad, Fraud or Frontier",  " Tulips, Eyeballs and Dogecoin " Many of those hypothesis and predictions came to forefront this week which led to collapse of FTX - once valued at $32 Billion and its young founder Sam Bankman-Fried became from hero to villain.  FTX was saving crypto world during summer meltdown by buying or supporting other smaller "houses of cards" built on fraud coins, over-leverage, no regulations...no one had any id...

Many of you know the famous Gordon Gekko (played by Michael Douglas) dialogue from the 1987 movie Wall Street - "Greed is Good". Well - on the eve of mid-term elections, let me tweak that dialogue into a political context and say "Gridlock is Good". Over the last two years, we've had a one-sided government within all branches of government (President, House and Senate controlled by Democrats). We got some meaningful policy actions done by Biden and Congress. But some of those actions also created the inflation mess that the economy is dealing with (another reason is slow action by Fed in raising interest rates) as well as gyrations in stock markets. Most of the predictions suggest that Democrats are going to lose House by a few seats and there is small possibility that they may lose control of Senate (my prediction is that the Senate will remain 50:50). Either way, with the House gone to GOP, there would be "gridlock" in Washington. Here are my reason...

I have a written few blog posts about Tesla while it was still a small company with a market cap of less than $10B (unfortunately, I did not follow my own advice of owning the stock instead of or in addition to the car; as the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20). Now that Tesla is a much bigger company (with a market cap equal to or greater than all the other car companies in the world combined), it's time to take another look at the company and the stock. So here it goes. $TSLA reached a 52 week low this week despite very optimistic "pedal to the metal" projections from Elon Musk. After touching a $1 trillion valuation, it has been sliding down (call it the trillion dollar curse, similar to what Meta also experienced – but that's another blog topic) and lost over 40% in 2022. What's impacting Tesla and its stock? There are 4 "C"s which will decide what's next for the company. Competition: It used to be EV + Autonomous Driving + Cool Factor = Tesla just...

After long hiatus due to personal reasons, it's time to get back to blogging. And what better day to start than on first day after historically worst month for markets. This year was no different. Sept kept to its reputation as worst month with markets ending at lowest point for 2022 (S&P down by 25% and Nasdaq by 32%). This week saw the leaders (like Apple etc) taking the hit...that may be an indication that markets may be getting closer to bottom...now that we are in Oct which had the reputation of having worst crashes, we may get one or two big crashes...that would be clear sign of market bottom. As they say "Don't fight the Fed" - that holds true in both directions. Fed is determined to get back it's credibility and will not (and should not) pause interest rate hikes till inflation indicators show clear downward trend....It's possible that Fed may do more than needed and damage the economy at least for short run...Economists, companies and policy maker...