Seeking Alpha by Adding Beta

The double negative verdicts of Aug 21 may be considered as start of end of Trump Presidency. Only history would tell us significance of events happened on that day. Almost exactly 20 years back, political news were filled with special counsel Ken Starr and possible impeachment of President Clinton. Now it is Muller and Trump filling the political news. Special counsel Muller may file his report sometime later this year and democrats may gain control of house triggering possible impeachment process of President Trump. So what impact will it have on markets? Looking back, markets in 1998 fell nearly 20% leading to release of Starr's report. But once report was out and actual impeachment process started in Nov, markets regained all the losses and some more. It gained 28% by the time senate acquitted President Clinton in early 1999. While Clinton became lame-duck in last 2 years, markets continued to gain momentum during dot.com era. Looking at this history, what could happen this ti

Thanksgiving is more than 3 months away and world is already worried about "Turkey" because of Turkey Shoot.  A  turkey   shoot   is   a   fight   or   contest   where   one   side   is   so   much   stronger   than   the   other   that   the   weaker   side   has   no chance   of   winning.  That's exactly what is happening with President Trump taking the fight with Turkey's strongman Erdogan over release of American Pastor Andrew Branson. Turkish Lira dropped over 40% in 2018 (17% drop coming on Friday last week). This reminds the days of Asian  currency crisis 20 years back. What started in Thailand in 1997 with its currency dropping 40% quickly spread to other countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea and caused turmoil in worldwide markets. As they say, history does repeat itself. 20 years later, world is in very similar phase. Would summer Turkey Shoot turn to be a full-blown crisis? Sept and Oct are upon us. These months are one of the worst months i

As I mentioned in my previous blog in May about Race to Trillion , last week we did see first modern-day trillion $ market cap company. And the crown went to Apple as expected. As Q2 results started pouring in, it was clear that one of the two companies (Apple or Amazon) would claim the title. Both companies along with other two contenders Alphabet and Microsoft announced outstanding results and continued the momentum towards trillion. I won't be surprised if we see another trillion $ company in 2018 and most likely it would be Amazon. By end of 2019, expect all 4 companies to have crossed this milestone. Looks like Trillion is the new $500 Billion (of dotcom days). Lots of interesting events have happened in month of July. France won its third Soccer world cup, escalation in tariffs "war of words", continued early-morning twitter meltdown of President Trump, Fed staying the course of raising interest rates. Despite all of these potential market moving news (except Fran