Predictions 2006

Since this is first time I am writing blog on a new year eve and I am kind of fond of predicting some of the stock actions, I thought let me put it in writing so I can evaluate if they were on target or not. Some of these may be obvious but nonetheless let me put them in writing. I am willing to take bets (Bhandi - are you up for it:-)

Top 5 stock predictions:

Google: Google hitting $ 500 (pre-split)in next 6 months (before 7/1/06), gets included in S&P and gets split
PALM: Will hit $ 40 by year-end
Apple: Will split 2:1 and hit $ 42 after split ($ 84 before split)
EBAY: Will cross $ 50 in next 9 months (before 10/1/06)
Click Commerce (CKCM): An RFID vendor will cross $ 30 (currently at $ 21)

Mutual Funds:
- Japan and Korea based mutual funds continue to do well. Watch out for Profunds Ultra Japan and fidelity Korea funds
- Health care industry would continue to return decent returns

Indian stocks:
- BSE index will cross 10500 by year end
- Aptech will touch 200 in one year (currently at 138)
- Apollo Hostpitals will reach 625 in one year (currently at 490). Medical tourism will start gaining major traction and since Apollo is best positioned in this space will start getting noticed
- Hexaware Technologies will reach 180 by year end (currently at 130)

Trends in Politics:
- By year end, Hillay will start giving indications about being candidate for 2008 presidential election
- John McCain's candidacy on Republican ticket will start getting momentum
- No major changes in Indian Politics other than BJP trying to stay relavent by creating some new about internal party politics

Personal resolutions:
- Excersize at least 2 days a week (just a simple jog in morning)
- Other resolutions are too private to list them here:-)

Happy new year !

Shyam

This was first cal game we went. Yash, Mark are having good time during half-time. It was fun to watch first college football game. Now that I am cal student, I have started taking interest in college football and it is pretty interesting. I just saw Adam Sandler's The Biggest Yard - good entertaining movie.

Today my second half of Fall semester started with accounting and and markting classes in EWMBA. Both pref are pretty good and keep discussion interesting. Accounting prof Suneel is good at making fun of accountants and keep a subject like acct interesring. Markteing is whole new area for me so understanding those concepts are useful. Good thing is there is no mid or final term exam even though project sounds scary...but hey you can't learn just by reading books. So for now I am enjoying and learning my MBA.

Looks like Apple stock has already paid for my "nano". Friday was the day for Google. I should have done some more study and bought Oct 220 options which were selling at $ 2 on Thursday and closed $ 19 on Friday for a cool 850 % gain. I need to keep an eye on Google options just before next quarter results.

After my OB class, I just ordered Jack Welch's Winning book. Need to find some time to read it.

Good night !

iPOD

I have been monitoring Apple stock for quite some time and I have always admired Apple as a great innovator in computing and now music players and great marketer. I got excited by their introduction of ipod nano and went with my son Yash to check it out in Apple Store in Valler Fair Mall.
It was so cool and neat that Yash wanted to buy it immediately. I mentioned to him that we will buy over Christmas and started thinking how can I use this cool nano.

I started a competition on my group on whoever fixes most defects from Sept to Dec05 timeframe would get a ipod nano. We call it as "nano" race. And the group got really excited about this race and I am seeing about 30-40% increase in defect fix rate than normal conventional times. My conclusion is that folks get motivated more by public recognition and competative spirit of race.

Now coming to nano for myself or Yash, I decided that I will buy nano only with money made on Apple. So I went and bought 100 shares of Apple at around 52. I hope to buy nano (or new video enabled iPOD) with gains from this and my guess is Apple stock would touch 60 by Christmas timeframe giving me enough gains to but one of these ipods myself

MBA update:
Just completed final for MicroEnconomics yesterday and OB presentation. Final went so-so since I made some silly mistakes. OB presentation went ok. My MBA course is almost 10 % complete. Next week two courses: Marketing and Accounting are starting. It would be interesting

EWMBA

Finally my EWMBA as Haas has started on 8/20 with first day at Berkeley campus. First day was pretty good - it was like having 6 day work-week. The jorney till now was started last year around Dec time when I decided to pursue my MBA and started preparing for application. After GMTA, Tofel, Essays, Reco, Admission, waiting for confirmation for admission, stats pre-req course completion and attending Haas Orientation in first week of Aug - it was already a long journey and since I survived this, I am sure that I would survive first year in which we have to complete 9 courses and total 3 years to complete my MBA.

First half of first semester has two courses - one on Micro-economics and other on Organization Behaviour. Both are interesting courses and should be directly applicable to my job to some extent. Instrcutors are good.
Home-work and studies have started with reading of case-studies and problem set solutions. Before it starts with full speed, I went for a round of bridge with Bhandi, Rahul K and Manoj Wadekar. Not sure when I would be able to play again !

Now coming to some stock opinions:

India:

Anil Ambani has investred in Span Telesystems which is involved in call-center and other telecommunications related out-sourcing activities. From experience with Adlabs and Reliance Capital, the share prices in which Anil Ambani invests zooms in next few weeks. Span Tele has already went from 25 to 150 today. I think it is good indication to invest. In my opinion, this stock will cross 200 by 2005 year end for 25 % return - not bad for 5 months return.

For US stocks, I am tracking LOUD and PALM which I think have quite potential. LOUD is kind of arms-dealer enabling many non-tech companies and even MSN to open up Music stores for song downloads. It is around 90 cents and should go above 1.2/1.3 by year end.
PALM's Treo line of PDA cum cell-phone is very strong competition to RIMM and from market value point of view, PALM is cheap compared to RIMM. I am surprised that either Nokia or Apple is not making a bid for PALM. In my opinion, it should cross 40 (from current 33) by year end.

Other opinions in next post..Good night !

The World is Flat

Over the 4th July long weekend, I am alone since my family is in India on extended vacation. This is good time for me to catch up on my reading. I went to Borders and bought "The world is Flat" by Thomas Friedman. I had just onto second chapter and I must say that it is MUST read for anyone educated and want to get ready for this changing world order. Fortunately for us indians, the new order is much more beneficial for India (and China).
I liked his concept of Globalization 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 phases. First phase from was 1492 to 1800 when countries went on to discover other countries in search of wealth and eventually colonization came in. In 2.0 (from 1800 to 2000), big companies starting from East India Company to today's IBM had power and went across globe to become multi-nationals. In 3.0 which has started post 2000, individuals would have the power.
Currently reading 10 factors which caused the world to become "flatter". More later on this reading....

India Stocks

When I was in India for 3 weeks from Jun 8 to Jun 26, I used to read Economic Times and watch one of the business news on NDTV or Aaj-Tak. The stock market was so hot that it reminded me Nasdaq of 1999-2000. However there was a small difference. Most of the increases were based on solid fundamentals and Indian stock market is still trading at P/E of around 15 even at this peak.
I correctly predicted that all reliance stocks would jump as soon as settlement between Ambani brothers is reached and they did. I was at Solapur when this news came and I told to my brother-in-law to but Rel Cap at 282 (that day it jumped 20 % from 234) and told him that it will reach 500 in 2 years. It is already at 374.
Just read that Reliance Cap has bought 51 % of Adlabs which is in entertainment and multiplexes. The stock has already jumped from 150+ to 270+ in past 2-3 weeks. I need to watch this since my guess is that this will also reach 500 in 2 years or less.
More on Indian stock market and stock tips in next post

While going to India 4 weeks back, we had a stopover at Singapore for about 8 hours. We took the advantage of free singapore trip offered by Singapore airport. I must say that it was great trip to see city again after 10 years (we took first trip in 1995). The trip had a very good boat ride along downtown area. Singapore is the greenest city I had seen.

I was in India for 3 week vacation. It was a great vacation meeting with all family and friends. We went to few places line Vani near Nasik. We also went for a marriage on my wife's side family and from there we went to Panhala near Kolapur. It was short but exciting trip.