The Oscar goes to....

It's Oscar weekend and to make watching Oscar awards program interesting, what is better way than to pick winners and see how one does in predicting. Last year I had 75% success rate (3 out of 4). So this time I decided to predict 14 winners as follows:

• Best Picture - Argo 
• Lincoln has good shot but after seeing both movies, Argo deserves to win
• Best Director - Steven Spielberg (For Lincoln). 
• This should have been Ben Affleck but nomination process blew up this time. So it would be one of those years when Best Picture and Best Director could go to two different movies
• Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis (for Lincoln) - no competition here
• Best Actress - Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) - this could be only award this movie may win due to controversy surrounding this movie
• Jennifer Lawrence (for Silver Linings Playbook) could be surprise winner only because of "feel good" factor vs "controversy" 
• Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
• Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway (Les Mis) - no competition
• Best Adapted Screenplay - Lincoln
• Best Original Screenplay - Django Unchained 
• Here ZDT should win but most likely not due to reasons mentioned earlier
• Best Visual Effects - Life of Pi
• Best Original Song - Skyfall
• Best Costume - Les Mis
• Best Animated - Brave
• Best Cinematography - Life of Pi
• Best Foreign Film - Amour
• Best Documentary - 5 Broken Cameras

Looking forward to Oscar evening tomorrow to see results of my prediction index (I have asked Yash also to pick winners so there is little family competition)

Last week markets started feeling little anxious over upcoming "sequester" cuts as well as some possible European uncertainties especially around Italian elections and Spanish corruption scandals. In Feb markets have gone up less than 1% after a big Jan. That would mean that momentum is coming to end at least for short term and at this time it is more likely that DOW would touch 13500 before it touches 14500. Having said that I particularly got interested in Solar sector recently. Over last few months some of these stocks have gone up by 100-200%. However some basic industry level changes such as reeducation in oversupply due to many companies going BK, lease options becoming popular and big utility projects (Mr Buffet invested)  seem be turning and could provide further upside to these stocks. My picks are FSLR ($33), SPWR ($11-12) and WFR ($5). Be careful investing in any Chinese solar manufacturer - they are alive only because of Chinese bank support.

Have a great Oscar weekend

/Shyam

Go 49ers:Quest for Six!

Finally the day which all of Bay Area and for that matter all of America was eagerly waiting is here. The biggest sports day of the year for America (bigger than Olympics) - Superbowl day is here! This year's Superbowl is special for many reasons:

• First time two brothers are head coaches of opposite teams dubbing Superbowl as HarBowl (as I predicted in my previous blog)
• First time a team (49ers has won 5 times) has a chance to match record of most Superbowl wins (currently held by Steelers with 6 Superbowl wins)
• First time a team (49ers) has a chance to have chance of perfect score by winning today's Superbowl - they have 100% record of winning Superbowl. Hence Quest for Six!
• First time an average cost for 30 second ad would cost close to $5 Million ($3.8 million for TV spot and over $1 million to produce the ad)
• There are many reasons but for Bayarea fans like us, 49ers playing in Superbowl is happening after 18 years. I remember last time it happened when I was just starting to know how this game is played (10 yards in 4 plays and so on) and was planning to return to India after short stint in USA. 

There is one more reason for America wants 49ers to win today. Last time it won Superbowl in 1995, stock market was up by over 37%. Last time Ravens won Superbowl in 2001, stock market was down by 11%. So if you are investor and cares about stock market returns, make sure to root for 49ers win!

And looks like markets are already predicting 49ers win with DOW and S&P close to their all time highs with DOW most likely breaking that record next week and S&P breaking before Feb month end. What after that? Once these records are broken, markets would take a pause due to upcoming "budget fights" in DC. I won't be surprised if markets even go down by about 5% after breaking records. So enjoy the gains you may have had in your portfolios and watch for volatility in Q2. This weekend, I started watching "House of Cards" on Netflix - if you like politics, this series is for you. Great role by Kevin Spacey.

For now, have a great Superbowl game.

GO San Francisco 49ers!

/Shyam