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Stree-Dhan vs. Oracle of Omaha!

Happy February! After another brief hibernation from the blog—partly to digest the early year volatility and partly to observe the shifting sands of global liquidity—it’s time to look at some fascinating disconnects in the market.

Lately, I’ve been thinking about the "Unbeatable Asset Class." No, I’m not talking about the S&P 500 or Nvidia. I’m talking about a collective force that has quietly outperformed the "Oracle of Omaha" for over two decades.

1. The Golden Saree: Indian Women vs. Warren Buffett

If you look at the performance of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) since the launch of the GLD ETF (the first gold ETF) in late 2004, you’ll find a startling reality. While Buffett is the gold standard of value investing, the "Gold Standard" itself—specifically in the hands of Indian households—has been a formidable rival.

Data shows that since the inception of the GLD ETF in November 2004, the total return on Gold has actually surpassed Berkshire Hathaway. In USD terms, Gold is up roughly 932% compared to Berkshire’s 744%. But for the Indian woman, the "Alpha" is even higher. Because she buys in Rupee (INR), she has benefited from a "Double Engine" of growth: the rising global price of gold and the steady 3–4% annual depreciation of the Rupee against the Dollar.

For decades, Buffett dismissed gold as a "non-productive" asset that just sits in a vault. But for millions of Indian families, Stree-Dhan has been the ultimate hedge, outperforming the smartest man in Omaha by simply buying gold on every festival and wedding in the family and holding it forever. My mom used to advise exactly this since I was young (which unfortunately I did not act on but fortunately as every Indian woman my wife did). 

2. The "Warsh Effect"

Moving from real assets to macro policy, we have to talk about the Warsh Effect. With Kevin Warsh’s influence looming large over the fiscal intersection, markets are bracing for a "hawkishly pro-growth" stance.

The Warsh Effect is essentially the market’s anticipation of Rule-Based Monetary Policy.

  • Stocks: We are seeing a "Bad News is Bad News" regime. The market wants growth, but it’s terrified of a bond vigilante comeback and by appointing a credible candidate, Trump gave markets assurance that Fed would remain independent and balanced in its approach to inflation and employment

  • Cryptos: Liquidity came out of cryptos to chase hot rally in gold and silver. With Warsh effect and potential shrinking of Fed's balance sheet, it would be interesting how cryptos behave in new normal. Unfortunately extreme leveraging in cryptos and washout events like in Oct and maybe this weekend decide prices of cryptos more than macro factors. 

  • Commodities: A tug-of-war is underway. A stronger dollar usually hurts commodities, but if the Warsh doctrine successfully re-industrializes the US, industrial metals like copper and silver should do ok. And as far as gold goes, it has almost become new "reserve currency" of the world.

3. Hot Memory and Storage: What's next?

Finally, the "Nuts and Bolts" of the AI revolution. 2024/2025 was about the "Brain" (GPUs). 2026 is the year of Memory.

Stocks like Micron (MU) and SK Hynix are hitting record highs because AI models are "memory-bound." You can’t have a super-intelligent AI if it has the short-term memory of a goldfish. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and Flash memory (for storage) are now the most valuable real estate in tech. No wonder analysts are predicting Sandisk to reach 4 digits followed by 1:10 split.

What’s next? We are approaching the "Cyclical Peak" anxiety. Usually, when everyone realizes memory is essential, the industry overbuilds and prices crash. However, the "AI needs" feels permanent. With Micron alone committing over $100 Billion in expanding capacity, eventually enough supply would come online to have usual cyclical patterns - maybe in 2028.  As adjacent players, one should look at storage infrastructure players to understand how their business model evolves in this "hot memory" world

And the Grammy goes to...

I am no expert in western songs and very rarely listen to latest albums (I am into old classics and Hindi songs)....But that should not prevent me in enjoying a good show and best way to enjoy the show is to make predictions (even if I have no clue) and check how many were correct...

So here are my predictions with help from AI and various articles I read

Here is my take for the Big Four + Pop Album:

  • Album of the Year: Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS. With his Super Bowl halftime show looming next week, the momentum is undeniable. This would be historic since this would be first full non-English album to win.

  • Record of the Year: Kendrick Lamar & SZA - "Luther". Kendrick leads the field with 9 nominations, and this track has the "cultural resonance" the Academy loves.

  • Song of the Year: "Golden" (from KPop Demon Hunters). This one I know since I was the movie and it’s been 12 weeks at #1 for a reason.

  • Best New Artist: This is the most wide-open field in years. Olivia Dean has the "Grammy Soul," but Sombr has the algorithm. I’m betting on Olivia Dean for the win, but watch out for Leon Thomas

  • Best Pop Vocal Album: I’m betting on Lady Gaga’s MAYHEM. However, watch out for  Sabrina Carpenter. Man's Best Friend is a masterclass in pop engineering, and she has momentum.

Bottom Line: Whether it’s the gold in an Indian locker or the HBM chips in a Blackwell server, the theme for 2026 is Tangibility. In a world of deepfakes and AI hallucinations, investors are soul-searching for things that actually exist—and can touch!

Stay invested, stay curious.

/Shyam

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