Go Giants, Go Obama!

Today morning I was wondering which "match" bay areas people would be most interested in and what would be likely outcome they would prefer. Both "matches" are over and I like results for both of them. Normally I do not follow baseball till playoffs and unless one of the Bay Areas teams are closer to world series. After lagging by 3-1, San Francisco Giants pulled am amazing feat by winning today's last game by 9-0 and hence entering world-series against Tigers. On second "match", President Obama won today's debate hands-down. Foreign policy is Obama's strongest suit and he demonstrated and articulated his vision and clarity on his approach to this very important aspect of Presidential responsibility. He also attacked Mr Romney by calling his policies as "wrong, reckless and all over the map" (which is true if anyone hears Romney's speeches in last 18 months). Now that 3rd and final Presidential Debate is over, debate scores stand at 2:1 in favor of Mr. Obama. In just over 2 weeks, America would elect her next President and given today performance, I am very confident (above 75%) that Mr Obama would be elected as 45th President of USA.
Now coming to earnings results and markets. Earnings have started pouring in and in general, they have been slightly negative in terms of cautious outlook for Q4 and 2013. It is understandable given elections and uncertainty in terms of taxes and spending. Markets got a scare on silver jubilee of worst day of market (Oct 19, 1987) history and they would be jittery for next two weeks. Once Obama wins elections, real work to avoid "fiscal cliff" would start and that would bring confidence to markets and economy. My prediction is that DOW would cross 14000 by year's end (provided world does not come to an end as per Mayan calendar on Dec 21, 2012:-)
Go Giants and Go Mr Obama!

/Shyam

October Surprise!

First week of October brought quite a few surprises. When week started, I thought election results would be "sealed" on Oct 3 with first Presidential debate. But given Mr Obama's lackluster debate performance, Mr. Romney got a slight opening but in the end that may not be enough (thanks God) and Mr Obama would win this election to get 2nd term. But he better practice his debating and most importantly attacking skills. I want to see Obama from 2008 who can lead from front. Hope his campaign managers learnt from first debate and would call on Mr Romney on his flip-flopping and in some cases complete lying!
Then comes employment report with some good news of unemployment dipping to 7.8%. This is lowest since Obama took office. That was good news for Mr President. As usual some folks like Jack Welch started crying wolf that this number is tweaked by white house. In one tweet, Jack lost all the respect I had for him over last 20 years. He should know better that no one is stupid to tweak such an important number. Oh - there was one person named Nixon who was Republican president and we all know what happened to him.
Anyway, at least markets seem to agree that economy is on mend with DOW touching 5 year high. With earnings season starting next week, we would know for sure if markets have got ahead of itself or projecting good bounce in economy 6 months down the line. If earnings season produced no major downside surprises, markets could continue its slow ride towards 14000. However I am predicting 500 point correction in DOW in next few weeks possibly DOW going below 13000 before touching 14000. The sectors I like most right now are REIT (VNQ) and energy (VDE). These two ETFs would give exposure to both of these sectors which do well no matter who would win election.
Finally in remembrance of Steve Jobs, here is something to remember:

 Steve Jobs' Most Memorable Quotes

/Shyam