Skip to main content

October Surprise!

First week of October brought quite a few surprises. When week started, I thought election results would be "sealed" on Oct 3 with first Presidential debate. But given Mr Obama's lackluster debate performance, Mr. Romney got a slight opening but in the end that may not be enough (thanks God) and Mr Obama would win this election to get 2nd term. But he better practice his debating and most importantly attacking skills. I want to see Obama from 2008 who can lead from front. Hope his campaign managers learnt from first debate and would call on Mr Romney on his flip-flopping and in some cases complete lying!
Then comes employment report with some good news of unemployment dipping to 7.8%. This is lowest since Obama took office. That was good news for Mr President. As usual some folks like Jack Welch started crying wolf that this number is tweaked by white house. In one tweet, Jack lost all the respect I had for him over last 20 years. He should know better that no one is stupid to tweak such an important number. Oh - there was one person named Nixon who was Republican president and we all know what happened to him.
Anyway, at least markets seem to agree that economy is on mend with DOW touching 5 year high. With earnings season starting next week, we would know for sure if markets have got ahead of itself or projecting good bounce in economy 6 months down the line. If earnings season produced no major downside surprises, markets could continue its slow ride towards 14000. However I am predicting 500 point correction in DOW in next few weeks possibly DOW going below 13000 before touching 14000. The sectors I like most right now are REIT (VNQ) and energy (VDE). These two ETFs would give exposure to both of these sectors which do well no matter who would win election.
Finally in remembrance of Steve Jobs, here is something to remember:

 Steve Jobs' Most Memorable Quotes

/Shyam

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...