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Showing posts from January, 2015

Deflation and "deflated balls: It's SuperBowl Time!

Last week words with "de" were popular. It started with Patriots winning their entry into SuperBowl with "defaulted" balls and ECB coming out with their strongest measures to deal with deflation which is setting in Europe. Interesting week indeed! Next Sunday is SuperBowl and as always it's time to bet on who is going to win. While both teams are strong, my prediction is Seattle Seahawks would win. This could be good for Markets as SuperBowl Indicator (which is nearly 80%) accurate says that win from NFC would mean markets would end positive for the year. Or maybe it's reverse corollary. Already with so much stimulus, it's most likely that markets would end year with positive means NFC team (Seahawks) would win. Let's see what happens in 2015. It's almost month into 2015 so it's time to recommend 15 picks for the year. Hopefully 2015 picks would do much better than 2014 picks. These picks are just an academic exercise. One needs to do his/

Year 2015 Predictions!

First of all, Happy New Year to all. 2014 was a mixed year for my predictions. While my prediction of all indexes (DOW at 18K, S&P over 2014 and Nasdaq near 4800 were very close to my predictions at start of 2014). I am proud of my predictions at macro level. However my recommendations did not do that good. Overall couple of recommendations like Yahoo (up by 28%) and RAD (up by 57%), there were some bad ones like NBG (down by 68%) and SRPT (down by 28%). Overall portfolio based on my recommendations would have been down by 3-4% (assuming equal amount investments). That's pretty shabby compared to S&P returns of 13%. Most of my recommendations are normally in small cap. When compared to small cap index which returned about 4%, it's ok.  Maybe I should stick with macro predictions:-) So here are some: OIL had it's 2nd worst year of all time. So what's outlook for oil in 2015. I think it goes up from here. After coming down by 50% in 6 months, it would go up b