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Showing posts from February, 2011

"Irrational Exuberance" - Time to be careful !

Nasdaq is at 10 year high. Almost all "pundits" on markets are way too optimistic. It's almost feel like 1995-1996 when Fed Chairman at that time Alan Greenspan famously quoted about "Irrational Exuberance" in markets. It was another matter than markets keep on drinking the "new Internet age" cool-aid for another 3 and 1/2 years before bubble burst. Greenspan was 3 years earlier in his prediction. One of the reason was his own policies at fed which caused this bubble. IMO we are seeing similar signs of "Irrational Exuberance" in markets at least for last few weeks. However it is not clear if this would go on for another month, year or week. To be frank, at this time, I cannot predict short-term move by markets. Markets can be insane longer than one think (both on upside and downside) ! Here are the reasons I feel markets are due for correction: Geo-political risks in Middle-east which could cause oil to jump European debt problem - two (I

2/11: Egypt and Middle-East changed Forever !

There are not too many historic moments one get to see in their lifetimes. One of such moment came this week when Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned after 30 years of rule ! Congratulations to all of Egyptians for this historic moment ! 2/11 would have same kind of profound significance in Egyptian history as 9/11 has on American history. I was glad to see the peaceful revolution of 18 days and final outcome. There was every possibility that outcome at Tahrir Square could have been similar to another Square starting with "T" 22 years ago. But Egyptian Military had displayed great level of maturity and sensibility in handling this revolution. We all hope that they continue to display this going forward and take this moment to make some real changes which could lead to overall reforms not only in Egypt but also in Middle-East. Markets continue to show great level of resilience despite so much turmoil and un-certainities in Middle-East. Even though oil went above $90

SuperBowl Effect

Congratulations Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers for winning 4th Super Bowl and 13th NFL championship. It was well deserved win over Steelers. In every aspect, Packers played a superior game and deserved to win. Congratulations to Aaron Rodgers who was major force in this win - being a Cal alum, it was a great pride that another Cal Alum has gone into history books with his performance. I was just checking how DOW performed when Packers won Superbowl in 1967, 1968 and 1997. Each of those years, DOW was up by about 10% or more. This is good news for 2011 (if you believe in such co-relation). If we go with this co-relation, we should see DOW go up by 10 plus % in 2011. It is already up by 5% so another 5 plus % in 11 months is not that difficult. Markets have big tail-winds behind them. Despite revolt in Egypt, markets are quite resilient and taking news coming out of Egypt in stride. In fact, Energy stocks are on rise in last two weeks giving a big boost to all indices. On simila