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SuperBowl Effect

Congratulations Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers for winning 4th Super Bowl and 13th NFL championship. It was well deserved win over Steelers. In every aspect, Packers played a superior game and deserved to win. Congratulations to Aaron Rodgers who was major force in this win - being a Cal alum, it was a great pride that another Cal Alum has gone into history books with his performance.

I was just checking how DOW performed when Packers won Superbowl in 1967, 1968 and 1997. Each of those years, DOW was up by about 10% or more. This is good news for 2011 (if you believe in such co-relation). If we go with this co-relation, we should see DOW go up by 10 plus % in 2011. It is already up by 5% so another 5 plus % in 11 months is not that difficult.

Markets have big tail-winds behind them. Despite revolt in Egypt, markets are quite resilient and taking news coming out of Egypt in stride. In fact, Energy stocks are on rise in last two weeks giving a big boost to all indices. On similar note, I noticed a significant change in momentum in commercial real estate stocks.  Commercial RE was supposed to be another shoe (after residential RE) to drop - but it never dropped. Mostly due to easy-money policy adopted by Fed, there is significant amount of money going around and finding its ways into refinancing commercial RE. This is saving lot of companies operating in this space. This sector would continue to do very well in 2011 and 2012. So here are some investment ideas in this sector:

  • Stocks: RAS ($3), GKK ($4.4), SFI ($8), DDR ($14), PLD ($14), SRZ ($8)
  • Dividend plays: AGNC ($29), SFI-PD ($19), CIM ($4.20)
  • Mutual funds: VGSIX ($19)
  • ETF: DRN ($60), URE ($50) - these are very aggressive ETFs and should be invested with extreme caution
In general, if you are adventurous and feel that US economy has recovered and would be entering in growth phase, commercial RE is sector you should definitely look into

/Shyam

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