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And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets. 

First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives...

This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..."

  1. Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist")
  2. Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist")
  3. Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist" (long shot surprise could be Timothee Chalamet for "The complete unknown")
  4. Best Actress - Demi Moore for "The Substance" (surprise could be Mikey Madison or Cynthia Erivo)
  5. Best Supporting Actor - Kieren Culkin for "A Real Pain" (there is no competition in this category)
  6. Best Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldana for 'Emilia Perez"
  7. Animated Picture - "Flow". I saw this just yesterday and it's such a refreshing take on animation movie (you must check out on Max) and I really feel that it should win despite heavy marketing for Inside Out 2 or Wild Robot
  8. International Feature - "I am Still Here" - Brazil
Now turning the page to other topics...where do I start...it's only 6 weeks since USA has new President and it's already feeling that it has been more than one year...some aspects are good - moving at corporate or even faster pace while some are not that good...government is not a business and instead of worrying about quarterly results, it need's to look at long term impact. I won't get into individual policies but only statement I will make it - Washington DC needed a shock therapy since status quo was not delivering...maybe it got more than it bargained for.

Markets are reacting to every news coming out of DC instantly...the Oval office briefings are making impacts similar to days during 2008-09 financial crisis. For now, markets are still holding up reasonably well but its just matter of time when economy and markets will take a decisive turn (up or down) as reaction to these constant onslaught of policy changes and associated news. As an investor, one should turn off this noise and not react/panic and instead should just stay the course of weekly investment plan you may have setup...because no matter what happens every day in DC, in the long run, US economy and markets are the best place to invest your hard earned money.

Have a great Oscar evening and great week ahead

/Shyam



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