Internet II: Video and Voice

I am not sure if I am qualified to write what title suggests but let me wtite few lines anyway. Reading the annoucements coming out of CES at Las Vegas and reactions various internet companies were getting from Stock Market, it was almost feeling like 2000. Google going up by 20 bucks, EBAY and Yahoo making their own movements. So what are the main significant annoceuments and how it may change the landscape:

1) Skype going everywhere: This is one of the most significant development happening. I did not think it would happen so quickly. Now you can get a skype-enabled phone which you can use in wi-fi hotspots to make free calls. So technically when cities like SFO becomes wi-fi cities, you don't need regula phones at all ! This is far fetched but still reality is very close. In my opinion, all telcos need to watch out this fast changing development very carefully and move aggresively to play a role in that. EBAY made a very smart move by getting Skype even though it was completely different business model than its own.

2) Video-on-demand is finally coming (after 10 years). Folks used to talk about VOD in 1995 and then people became frustated with quality and choices available. But with Apple iPOD video, $ 1.99 per episode on itunes and now Google announcement of video download is making Video-on-demand reality. Many of these are still tied to laptop, ipod or cell-phones. But by next year, it is possible to download this on TiVOs and play on TV. Good for Cisco due to increased BW.
Regarding Google getting into this market:

Financially just Video-download revenue will not be big revenue and profit maker for Google. However for any search, folks go to Google. It wants to keep that lead for videos also. So if I want to buy an episode of Seinfed, they want me to go to Google Video instead of itues and create indirect traffic to their search site. It is a smart move for Google and I think market is recognizing it

3) Third major but subtle development is flash everywhere. Every device like cell-phone, ipod, digital cameras would have a flash - not to count USB storage cards. No wonder SanDisk (SNDK) is riding high since there are still not too many players and at least for 12-18 months, even with additional supply coming from Intel/Micron joint venture, there would not be glut. I would not be surprised if SNDK hits $ 100 by 2006 year-end !

4) CES is becoming more exciting than COMDEX ! That means there is more action in consumer devices than computers/laptops.

Good night and have a good weekend!

/Shyam

Sample Portfolio :2006

As continuation of my predictions for 2006, I thought let me create a sample tracking portfolio with timeline of 1 year and see how it performs. Since I do not have spare $50K to invest, best way to test my analysis of some of these stocks is to actual create paper portfolio and track it for its performance.

I created this on Jan 3 morning so I assumed Dec 30 closing prices for buy.

Symbol Shares Price Comm Amount Notes
RIGL 200 8.10 10.00 1,630.00 Fallen Pharma company
SIFY 500 10.76 10.00 5,390.00 India + Internet, what else you need ?
PALM 200 31.75 10.00 6,360.00 Treo700 + RIMM woes
EBAY 200 43.43 10.00 8,696.00 Auction growth + Skype
CKCM 500 21.00 10.00 10,510.00 RFID play
BBI 1,000 3.75 10.00 3,760.00 This is not going BK so it would recover
ELN 1,000 13.90 10.00 13,910.00 Tyasbari returning to market in Apr06

Total paper money invested: $ 50256

My target for this paper portfolio is to return 15%. Let's see how it does in 2006 !

/Shyam