As I wrote at start of year " Third year is Best ", 2019 is turning out to be exactly like that and more. In 3rd year of president's term, markets have been up on average of 15%. This year, S&P is up by 20% and only half the year is over. So does that mean we have seen all the gains for 2019 already? With earnings season about to get into high gear, let's look at key factors which would decide what's in store for markets. Earnings: Next two weeks, large number of companies would be reporting 2nd quarter earnings and provide forecast for 2nd half. While some companies have started warning season (e.g ILMN), it has been relatively quiet on warnings front. Analysts have already lowered their expectations. Economy is not doing as badly as feared at start of year. Trade noise is subsiding. So majority of companies would meet/beat earning forecasts and provide cautiously optimistic forecast. The earnings show is becoming too predictable. No one likes surprises.
Commentary about markets and investment ideas and some random thoughts!