Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from December, 2023

Will "Goldilocks" economy take S&P to 5K?

Markets are having a record breaking dream run of 7 weeks of positive returns since Nov CPI report came out. Last week's Fed meeting confirmed already well known fact that interest rates have peaked and there are at least 3 rate cuts coming in 2024. Economy feels like "Goldilocks" economy - not too hot, not too cold...it's just perfect the way Goldilocks would have liked. Let's look at some of the key economic indicators. Unemployment dipped to 3.7% but wage growth has slowed down. Good Inflation dipped to 3.1% and all indicators pointing to further reduction. In fact if recent declining hosing rents are taken into account, the inflation may already be closer to 2.5%. Good Earnings were better than expected. Good Q3 GDP report was hot but Oct/Nov trends show that there is slowdown coming but enough to cause recession. Good Holiday shopping season had good start. Good Interest rates coming down. Fed is indicating 3 rate cuts. Good Small caps have finally started ca