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Will "Goldilocks" economy take S&P to 5K?

Markets are having a record breaking dream run of 7 weeks of positive returns since Nov CPI report came out. Last week's Fed meeting confirmed already well known fact that interest rates have peaked and there are at least 3 rate cuts coming in 2024. Economy feels like "Goldilocks" economy - not too hot, not too cold...it's just perfect the way Goldilocks would have liked. Let's look at some of the key economic indicators.

  • Unemployment dipped to 3.7% but wage growth has slowed down. Good
  • Inflation dipped to 3.1% and all indicators pointing to further reduction. In fact if recent declining hosing rents are taken into account, the inflation may already be closer to 2.5%. Good
  • Earnings were better than expected. Good
  • Q3 GDP report was hot but Oct/Nov trends show that there is slowdown coming but enough to cause recession. Good
  • Holiday shopping season had good start. Good
  • Interest rates coming down. Fed is indicating 3 rate cuts. Good
  • Small caps have finally started catching up with their big brothers (still over 10% gap in YTD performance). Good
  • REITs (especially commercial ones like SLG, VNO, BDN, BXP) etc may have dodged the bullet of "higher for longer" interest rates and will be able to refinance their mortgages and avoid bankruptcies. No wonder these stocks have doubled in last few months despite all the "gloom and doom" talk by pundits due to workers not coming to offices. Good
  • AI momentum continuing - AMD and INTC trying to join the AI gold rush with their recent announcements. Good
  • While China is still cold, policy makers have started talking about market friendly policy making. Chinese markets have not gone anywhere and Chinese web companies (like BABA, DIDI and others) are trading at fraction of their American counterparts. Would Chinese web companies turn around in 2024 the way magnificent 7 did in 2023? If you think it could happen, one way to invest would be thru ETF KWEB instead of individual Chinese stocks - Neutral
All of these factors feel like economy is in Goldilocks Equilibrium - not too hot and not too cold. These factors along with soft landing could take S&P to 5000 in 2024.

Indian markets are on a roll..especially after state elections in which ruling party BJP won 3 out of 5 states when expectations were 1. That bodes very well for Narendra Modi coming to power in May 2024 for record breaking third term. Around same time, Adani group got clearance from Indian courts and Americans approving loans (dis-crediting report from short seller Hindenburg) That caused tremendous rally in all of Adani group stocks. While Adani, Ambani and Indian tech stocks are well known to the investing world, there are many hidden gems in Indian markets...Here are couple of examples.

If you folks are fan of single malts and tried recent crop of Indian single malts like Rampur and Indri  (Indri Diwali Collector's Edition 2023 has been awarded as the best whisky in the world at the Whiskies of the World Awards), check out stocks of companies which make these Whiskies.

Rampur is made by Radicco Khaitan - it's stock went from Rs 85 to over 1600 (almost 1800%) in 8 years since Rampur was launched.

Indri is made by Piccadilly Distilleries (subsidiary of Piccadilly Agro Industries) - it was launched in 2021 and stock of its maker has gone from Rs 12 to 220 (almost 1000% in 3 years)

And given the reception of these whiskies and potential of expansion, they may be just getting started....

(disclaimer - I wish I had done this research when I saw Rampur in Bay Area Costco and came to know about Indri few months back. I don't have any investments in these two companies)

There are many similarities in family controlled Indian companies and founder run American companies - but that's for another blog in 2024.

If you are traveling during holidays, safe travels to all of you.

Happy Holidays....

/Shyam




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