Skip to main content

Year 2015 Predictions!

First of all, Happy New Year to all. 2014 was a mixed year for my predictions. While my prediction of all indexes (DOW at 18K, S&P over 2014 and Nasdaq near 4800 were very close to my predictions at start of 2014). I am proud of my predictions at macro level. However my recommendations did not do that good. Overall couple of recommendations like Yahoo (up by 28%) and RAD (up by 57%), there were some bad ones like NBG (down by 68%) and SRPT (down by 28%). Overall portfolio based on my recommendations would have been down by 3-4% (assuming equal amount investments). That's pretty shabby compared to S&P returns of 13%. Most of my recommendations are normally in small cap. When compared to small cap index which returned about 4%, it's ok.  Maybe I should stick with macro predictions:-)
So here are some:

  • OIL had it's 2nd worst year of all time. So what's outlook for oil in 2015. I think it goes up from here. After coming down by 50% in 6 months, it would go up by 15% in 2015. So expect oil to trade about $60
  • Here are predictions for major indexes:
    • DOW: Close to 20K
    • S&P: Close to 2200
    • Nasdaq: Close to 5100
  • Given that 3rd Presidential year is always good for stocks, it should not be very difficult for these indexes to make new records in 2015
  • Russian markets could surprise on positive side in 2015 - again this could be tied to oil finding some footing as well as no major land grab by Russia and Russians defending their currency
  • Europe would continue to be drag on overall world economy
  • So my best investment advice would be to stick with index based ETFs. Here are few recommendations:
    • XLE (around $79)
    • SPY (around $200)
    • TAN (around $33)
    • XLF (around $24)
    • IWM (around $118)
    • IBB (around $250) - Biotech had gone up quite a bit so wait for it to cool down before jumping in
    • QQQ (around $90)
I would still be investing in individual stocks since they still provide a good way to play "covered call" strategy. But those recommendations would be in next article.
Till then enjoy your holidays and happy new 2015 year!
/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2024: The year of.....

Wishing you a joyful New Year filled with laughter, love, and unforgettable moments, surrounded by cherished family and friends. May the 2024 bring similar gains as in 2023! I had great 2 weeks break with travels to Turkey with family and then solo trip to Palm Springs. Both places are amazing and definitely worth a visit if you get chance. Talking about gains in 2023 - Here is recap of 2023.. Inflation fallen below 4% and heading towards 3% Unemployment firmly below 4% Real wages growing above 4% GDP growth around 3% Markets: S&P notching one of the best year with 24% gains while Nasdaq doing even better with 40% gains thanks to Magnificent-7 (or TAMMANNA) many of which had triple digit gains My personal recommendations did exceptionally well - many of which were up by high double digits (e.g. INTC) and some of them had triple digit gains (e.g. META) All in all - 2023 was great year.  As calendar changed to 2024, what's in store for new year? This is election year in many coun
Post a Comment
Read more

Roaring 20s....Again!

About 2 years back coming out of COVID pandemic, I wrote blog titled " New Roarin' 20s.."  It covered what happened in 1920s and what are the factors now which would trigger new roaring 20s. Do check out the blog...almost all factors are valid even now. 2022 went sideways due to inflation pressures which triggered historical steep rate hikes by central banks which led to tech companies taking more measured approach and laying off 200,000 employees....all of that changed in Nov'22 when ChatGPT was launched...even though I had mentioned AI/ML as one of the factor in my previous blog, ChatGPT really captured the imagination of the world and changed the outlook of AI instantly similar to what Netscape did with the Internet and iPhone did with the mobile. The singular concept of "Language is the Interface" made AI accessible instantly to billions of normal people....And now without mentioning AI, no talk starts or ends in tech world..and despite onsite of most-aw
Post a Comment
Read more

It was not meant to be...

I imagined today' day (Nov 19, 2023) little differently than what it turned out to be..had a watch gathering at my place with few friends for India vs Aus ICC Cricket World Cup Final. Both teams deserved to be in the final - India winning all games in this tournament and Aus winning last 8 games after initially losing 2 games at start of tournament. The match was being played at the biggest stadium in the world (over 132,000 capacity) and over billion people tuning in...maybe most watched single sports event ever. After Australia won the toss, they choose to field (that's what most likely India wanted). India started well but then wickets kept dropping and India ended with total of 240 all out. That's when all of us knew that the dream of winning third world cup is over...despite one of the best bowling squad India ever had....The score was just not enough even for the best bowling to defend against one of the most professional and mentally strong team....No wonder Australi
Post a Comment
Read more