After long hiatus due to personal reasons, it's time to get back to blogging. And what better day to start than on first day after historically worst month for markets. This year was no different. Sept kept to its reputation as worst month with markets ending at lowest point for 2022 (S&P down by 25% and Nasdaq by 32%). This week saw the leaders (like Apple etc) taking the hit...that may be an indication that markets may be getting closer to bottom...now that we are in Oct which had the reputation of having worst crashes, we may get one or two big crashes...that would be clear sign of market bottom. As they say "Don't fight the Fed" - that holds true in both directions. Fed is determined to get back it's credibility and will not (and should not) pause interest rate hikes till inflation indicators show clear downward trend....It's possible that Fed may do more than needed and damage the economy at least for short run...Economists, companies and policy makers are already preparing for recession in 2023 (if we are not already in recession). Question is - would it be shallow like 2020 or multi-quarter like 2008-2009?
All indicators are pointing to markets playing out like 2008-2009. At that time, the volatility was much higher due to potential of complete meltdown of financial system. This time banks are in much better shape...so this may be a combination of 2008-09 and 2001-02. High tech valuations are getting compressed but other sectors like Energy are holding up well.
Last year every company was talking about supply chain issues preventing them from filling the orders and booking the revenues. If Nike's announcement is any indication, this earning season would be about too many goods and inventory glut leading to write-offs. So much about just-in-time and efficient supply chain management. Fortunately companies have not started mass layoffs. Employment in US is still holding strong...even now it's still very difficult to fill positions with qualified candidates even at significantly higher compensation. Would that change? Possibly given initial announcements from mid-size companies (DOCU, TWLO) to bigger companies (10% cost cutting by Meta and 20% productivity improvement by Google are indicators)
So what's in store for last quarter of 2022? Now-a-days making predictions has become a fool's game. But let me still take a swag at it.
- Fed will raise interest rates by 50-75 basis points in Nov and 50 basis points in Dec and give an indication that they would monitor the economic indicators before further hikes. No rate cuts in 2023 unless economy enters into severe recession and inflation fears turn into deflation talks...For now inflation would start inching towards 6-7% by year end with downward trend.
- Corporate earnings would be better than feared but companies would be extra cautious in their projections for Q4 and point to recessionary pressures and high costs (especially labor)
- Holiday shopping season would be reasonably good...people would be traveling and spending money. However travel sector (cruise companies etc) would continue to suffer due to capital structure (too much debt at very high rates)
- Elections: Dems would keep the senate (50-50) and may lose house majority with small margin
- After volatile October, markets would stabilize post elections with S&P ending the year between 4000-4200 (10-15% higher from current levels)
October is also festive season across the world. Jewish celebrating Yom Kippur, Hindus celebrating Navratri/Dussera and Diwali and then there is Octoberfest in Germany and around the world.
This quarter also has many sporting events - Cricket T20 World Cup, Soccer World Cup and in US, NFL and College Football keep weekends exciting (first time I am playing NFL fantasy football with my son and his friends..it definitely makes watching games more interesting). So for rest of 2022, forget about what's happening in markets and enjoy festivals with family and friends, sports, movies or just a walk in the park with colorful foliage!
/Shyam
Comments