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Niners and Nineties...

Finally the markets have reached the S&P 5000 milestone target last week, as predicted in my last blog "Are we there yet?". It was a forgone conclusion that it would happen sometime sooner than later. The question is what's next since many investors are feeling anxious to keep invested or get into the market (by some accounts trillions are on sidelines) but at the same time are getting FOMO (fear of missing out).

To answer this question, we would have to look at the Nineties... But before that, let's look at the biggest US sporting spectacle of Super Bowl on Feb 11. This year it is going to be the biggest event, with two of the best NFL teams (Niners vs Chiefs) playing. Each of these have storied quarterbacks (Mr. Irrelevant Brody and 2 times Super Bowl winner and MVP Mahomes). It's a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl when Chiefs beat Niners. Here are some the records:
  • Record estimated TV viewership of 118 million
  • Record cost of $7 million for 30-second advertisements
  • If the Niners win, it would be their first after 29 years and their sixth Super Bowl win, joining the Steelers and Patriots
  • If the Chiefs win, it would be their 4th win but it will join Patriots as only other team to achieve that feat in the 21st century
  • Since legal betting is allowed in 39 states, this would be biggest sports betting event in the world in terms of the money involved (estimate is over $23 billion) and the combination of bets one can make (including Taylor Swift appearances... )
  • Yes - this Super Bowl would be special due to America's most watched couple – Taylor Swift and Chiefs TE Travis Kelce). Even non-football "Swifties" will be watching this Super Bowl just to get glimpse of these two when Kelce plays. And he is playing very well, with 1-2 touchdowns in almost every playoff game
  • To top it all, this game is happening in the entertainment and gambling capital of the world – Las Vegas!
Coming back to the Niners - the last time they won the Super Bowl was in 1995...and that's where the connection of Niners and Nineties comes in.

In 1995:
  • The internet craze just started after the IPO of Netscape (similar to current AI craze triggered by ChatGPT launch by OpenAI). 
  • Fed rates peaked around 6% in Feb 1995 and Fed started cutting rates in July 1995 – this is exactly what the current Fed plans to do starting with rate cuts in the second half of 2024
  • Inflation started coming down in 1995, the same way it started coming down in 2023/2024
  • Clinton was dealing with a GOP-controlled house and looking forward to difficult re-election prospects for 1996 
  • 1995 was first year of double-digit gains for S&P for the next 5 years starting with 34% in 1995 (similar to 26% in 2023) - despite famous Greenspan warning of "irrational exuberance" in 1996
If you look at market returns in subsequent 4 years of 1996-99, it's possible that even a third of those returns would take S&P over 6500-7500 by the end of the decade. It is possible – if the biggest tech companies – followed by every business in the world – make AI investments.

While it will be difficult to predict who will be next NVDA or Meta of 2023 in the future, it's safe to stay invested in quality ETFs like SPY, SMH, XLK, IGV and dividend ETFs like JEPI.

Happy New Lunar Year - Gong Xi Fa Chai!

/Shyam






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