Last summer was filled with the buzz of "Barbenheimer" with the simultaneous release of Barbie and Oppenheimer, which gave both movies tremendous box-office success. It was American and Hollywood marketing at its best. This single event revitalized the post-pandemic theatre-going experience. However, as awards season started, the Academy and other award committee members side-stepped the glitter of Barbie and heaped tons of nominations on Oppenheimer (personally, I feel that Barbie deserved nominations in at least a few categories).
Oppenheimer got 13 nominations - one of the highest-matching records of movies like Gandhi, Titanic, and Lord of the Rings. It may end up winning in 7-8 categories. As has been the tradition over the last few years, here are my predictions for the top 7 categories:
- Best Picture: Oppenheimer
- Best Director: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) – This would be Nolan's first win despite giving some of the all-time best films like Inception, Interstellar, and the Batman series.
- Best Actor: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
- Best Actress: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)
- Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
- Best International Picture: The Zone of Interest (UK) – Some predictions say this could be stealth surprise winner even for best picture category, but I doubt it.
In addition to these 4 wins, Oppenheimer will win in Editing, Sound, Cinematography etc. As a side-note: I am sure Taylor Swift will have her influence even at the Oscars.
For the last couple of weeks, I have been in India visiting some of the most sacred pilgrimage places for Hindus, like Kashi and Ayodhya (and a few more). India is moving fast with so much energy and self-confidence under the leadership of PM Modiji. The outcome of national elections in Apr/May 2024 seem to have already been decided, with Narendra Modi getting a historic 3rd term with an even larger margin. Given his age, this may be his last term and Modiji is working tirelessly to make sure that India comes closer to realizing her full potential by end of his third term (2029).
Now coming to markets - Exactly 15 years back on Mar 9, 2009 S&P reached its bottom (around 676) during a financial crisis. And this week S&P reached all time highs (5187). The investors who did not panic 15 years back and stayed invested will have made over 16% per annum from bottom to top. This is the best example of just staying invested and do SIP (systematic investment plan) in index funds like SPY and let markets and time do their job. Don't try to be "market savvy" and don't try to time the market of getting in and out! No one got that right.
2024 seems to be year of semiconductors led by AI champion NVDA. Even at more than a trillion $ valuation at the start of the year, it added another 80-90% just in first 2 and half months of 2024. Other semi stocks like AMD, QCOM, AVGO also joined the party (INTC being the only exception). How long will this continue? NVDA and SMCI most likely will announce stock splits in the next few weeks, which could give another bump to their stock prices. Every quarter, NVDA keeps beating loftier expectations and raises forecasts. It's already worth $100 billion per year revenue with over 40% net profit margin. The juggernaut can continue for another couple of quarters.
As predicted, the economy really got its "Goldilocks" touch with inflation cooling, growth slowing but not too much and clearly heading toward a soft landing. Fed chairman Powell has started talking about rate cuts most likely starting in June of this year. That's why markets are seeing clear signals and pulling in annual gains to the first few months of the year.
With Super Tuesday behind us, it's going to be rematch between Trump vs Biden. It's too early to predict but given the momentum Trump got during primaries, Biden has his work cut out for him. I am sure President Biden is probably wishing he had the same momentum as PM Narendra Modi!
That's all for now...see you later during March Madness season!
/Shyam
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