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Oil at $138 and Financials in dump

Again very interesting week in stock markets - oil going to $122 and bouncing back to $138 within a week - how can this happen purely based on supply and demand. Neither supply has changed dramatically or demand has changed. IMO last $30-40 of oil price increase is purely due to speculation and index/ETF trading. Unfortunately that impacts common man across all countries. I am surprised that US government has not acted quickly enough to ban futures trading or at least put a halt on trading using margin for these accounts. I see another bubble in making and surest sign of this is when most of the investment bank analysts start predicting price targets which are completely out of whack - remember Amazon target price of $400 during hay-days of dot-com boom. Finally Amazon did reach this target price just recently (adjusted for split) but it took 7 more years. I hope I am right about "oil bubble" and if US Gov and Fed are smart, they would take immediate corrective actions to break this bubble.

Having said that for now don't fight against market since such irrational behavior could continue for months/years before bubble breaks

On other side of pendulum, financials are again in dump with almost all indexes/stocks reaching all time lows. All my past recommendations like FIDSX, UYG are below when I recommended them. Again, market could be irrational on down-side also and these stocks could go down another 20% or so

So where does one invest (if one has any cash left after paying for gas and other necessary stuff to go on about one's life). Here are recommendations

  • Solar stocks - with oil at this level, world has to find alternate sources of energy and solar companies are best way to play. Recommendation: ESLR with target price of $14-15 in 12 months
  • Oil exploration stocks or mutual funds - world has to start exploring more and more. FSESX and OIH are good way to play this sector. However wait for oil to come down to $100-110 range before jumping into this sector
  • With new iphone coming in next week, I am tempted to recommend Apple. But at $185, all the good news is already priced in and upside is about 20% from here
On political note, finally Obama's nomination is sealed and I am happy that finally we would have a democratic president who can fix this mess created by previous administration. Sheryl Crow even has a song called "God Bless This Mess"

Good luck and have a good weekend

/Shyam

Comments

Anonymous said…
Very nice blog.
The "buy and hold" strategy that the institutional investors are following on commodity futures is the reason for this unrealistic rise in price. Legislation is required to prevent big money from these investors.
If it is not mortgage backed securities (MBS) it is commodity futures where another example of American excess is being noticed. Anywhere there is excess, we notice that the delicate balance in the economy is exposed and something gives way.

~venkit
10:11 PM
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