Finally all three indexes are almost in bear market territory - means they are down by 20% from their recent peaks reached in Oct 07. So that begs the questions - which direction markets are headed ? I have been quite optimistic predicting markets to touch 13000 during by Aug 08. But looks like I was wrong (though almost 2 months of summer is remaining - so you never know:-)
During recent bear markets in 1991 and 2001, markets have been down by about 21% to 36% from their peaks. So if we assume that we are seeing a typical bear market this time around, we will see markets go down by around 5-6 % taking Dow to near 10500 range. Good news is that within 12 months of touching bottom, markets have rebounded returning 23% to 33%. So while we cannot predict the bottom, this down-trend provides an excellent buying opportunity to reap the long-term benefits. I would recommend index funds like S&P or International indexes. Note that markets in China and India are down by 50% to 30% so once things stabilize (and elections are over in India), these markets could shoot back providing similar returns on upside.
Of course, wild card in all this is oil. With oil making new highs every day and almost everyone making predictions of oil touching $170, I would recommend taking profits from oil/commodity focused investments and start investing in other sectors of economy such as health care, green energy and even select financials.
Good luck and good night!
/Shyam
During recent bear markets in 1991 and 2001, markets have been down by about 21% to 36% from their peaks. So if we assume that we are seeing a typical bear market this time around, we will see markets go down by around 5-6 % taking Dow to near 10500 range. Good news is that within 12 months of touching bottom, markets have rebounded returning 23% to 33%. So while we cannot predict the bottom, this down-trend provides an excellent buying opportunity to reap the long-term benefits. I would recommend index funds like S&P or International indexes. Note that markets in China and India are down by 50% to 30% so once things stabilize (and elections are over in India), these markets could shoot back providing similar returns on upside.
Of course, wild card in all this is oil. With oil making new highs every day and almost everyone making predictions of oil touching $170, I would recommend taking profits from oil/commodity focused investments and start investing in other sectors of economy such as health care, green energy and even select financials.
Good luck and good night!
/Shyam
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