Skip to main content

The Audacity of Hope

I am halfway through Barack Obama's book titled "The Audacity of Hope". He can write as well as he can speak. His thoughts are clear, well explained. It's good read. Being just a first time senator for 2 years (book was published in 2006), he has great understanding of politics, values, opportunities. If he becomes president (and I strongly believe he would be in Nov elections), his rise would be one of the fastest rise in American politics.

With so many things going wrong around us (Iraq war, oil at $135, subprime mess, economy stuck, unemployment at 5.5%, inflation rising across the world and rampant speculation in commodities trading), we need a fresh start and I am hopeful that Obama can provide that fresh start.

I was just watching US open and Tiger Woods is 1 behind the leader with 5 more holes to go. I bet he is going to win his 3rd US open title today

Now coming to markets - where are they headed next week ?
Here are my predictions:
  • Oil coming down below $130
  • Dow touching 12500 and Nasdaq touching 2500
  • With major financials reporting results next week, finally LEH, GS, WB and WM finding some footing. Lehman may touch $28 (from $25 on Friday) at which it raised nearly $6B
  • Airlines with their cost cutting and raised prices for all kinds of services should also find some footing. If you are daring enough, one could take some positions in airline stocks (or ETF) as a bet against oil
  • In general, the way markets bottomed out in March, exactly 3 month later it again bottomed out and July/Aug should be similar to Apr/May
  • Jerry Yang of Yahoo really screwed up by not accepting Yahoo offer in Feb or May and now Yahoo stock is back to 23 and most probably going down even further. What would Mr. Ichan do since he must have lost $100M in this Yahoo/Microsoft saga. He must be totally pissed off at Yahoo board. IMO, he would continue to fight the proxy war but now that Microsoft is out of picture (almost) and no other company willing to acquire Yahoo, most probably major shareholders have no other option but to stick with Jerry and co and hope for the best! I would buy Yahoo between $20-21. Till then there are so many other opportunities around us and would take a pass at Yahoo
Have a good weekend

/Shyam

Comments

Anonymous said…
Hey shy thanks for the info on the new delhi

think Im going to go there as the reviews seem like the food there is really good

will let you know how it is

thanks again for the rec.

hope things are going well
8:56 PM
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...
Post a Comment
Read more

2026: The Year of Convergence – Melt-up, Moonshots, or Mid-cycle Correction?

Happy New Year! After another period of self-imposed hibernation from the blog—partly due to the festivals, travel, intertia and partly to watch the dust settle on a chaotic 2025—I decided to use the quiet of this New Year’s morning to finally reboot.  Looking back at my October post,  “Clicks to Tokens,”  the hunch about the AI theme held firm. We spent much of 2025 debating whether we were in 1998 or 2000. As we enter 2026, the answer seems to be "neither and both." We have the roaring optimism of the 1920s fueled by "Silicon Spirits," but with the high-speed volatility of the 2020s. So, as the calendar flips, what is in store for 2026? Markets may experience melt-up (S&P touching 8000),  with some moonshots (like SpaceX and OpenAI) IPOs or even see mid-cycle correction bringing down S&P to 6000. That's a wide range and will be decided by Four R's... Here are my thoughts on the " Four R’s ":  Rates, Robots, Rotations, and Real Assets. 1. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more