Just saw a program on CNBC hosted by Erin Burnett titled "India Rising: The New Empire". I must say it was well balanced program covering all aspects of India from snake charmers to India's booming IT industry, Dharavi slums to Ambani's $1B house in Mumbai, Disney/McDonald's going to India and India's booming bollywood industry.
With 300 million kids (equal to the size of US population), demographics is definitely in India's favor only if India can invest in educating all of its future generation.
With Indian stock market down by nearly 25-30% from its peak, is it good time to invest in India?
With elections looming (could be at same time as US elections in Nov 08), I would expect BSE index may come down below 13000 from 14500 - it could even go to 12000 with additional loss of about 15%. However once elections are over, market can start its long-term upward trend going above 20000 by 2010 (similar to Brazil where markets went up after elections were over). There are many ways US investors can participate in the market - I would recommend monitoring BSE index and investing when it is between 12000-13000. Here are some of the companies and mutual funds which could be used to get exposure to India story
Good luck and good night
/Shyam
With 300 million kids (equal to the size of US population), demographics is definitely in India's favor only if India can invest in educating all of its future generation.
With Indian stock market down by nearly 25-30% from its peak, is it good time to invest in India?
With elections looming (could be at same time as US elections in Nov 08), I would expect BSE index may come down below 13000 from 14500 - it could even go to 12000 with additional loss of about 15%. However once elections are over, market can start its long-term upward trend going above 20000 by 2010 (similar to Brazil where markets went up after elections were over). There are many ways US investors can participate in the market - I would recommend monitoring BSE index and investing when it is between 12000-13000. Here are some of the companies and mutual funds which could be used to get exposure to India story
- ICICI Bank (IBN)
- Mattews India Fund (MINDX)
- Proshares India (PIN)
- Tata Motors (TTM)
- Wipro (WIT)
- Infosys (INFY)
- iPath MSCI India Index (INP)
- India Fund (IFN) and so on
Good luck and good night
/Shyam
Comments
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I came across your blog through google search for "India Rising: The New Empire." I felt the show was misreported in more than one area. For example, the biggest slums in Asia, Dharavi generates nearly $40Billion via numerous illegal activities like smuggling of gold, drugs, prostitution of men, women and sadly even children.
The report was very enthusiastic in reporting the boom of economy and it's eagerness to build a strong infrastructure. Burnett showed buildings,malls, super mega malls and commercial properties being built the problem is the sustaining of these structure. They have cars but no road that can get from East to West or any roads that meet East,West,North and South. There are tall buildings being built but no running water or secure drainage system. Moreover, what happens if one of the units in the building goes on fire, there are no choppers to secure citizens. This report completely failed to show the lack of irrigation in India. To many of us living in United States like myself, we wouldn't think twice about it. I think India has a long away to go when 70% of food makes it to the market and the 30% is spoilage. I mean 60% of the population in Mumbai lives in slums, which cover over 6% of the city's land. Thus although to the rest of the world, our economy might be rising comparison to the last 25 years; our social development is stagnant. Especially if Mayavati, a political leader who does not speak the universal language to take India to the next frontier.
Thanks for your comments and passion about what is "broken" in India as compared to USA. I agree that CNBC program may not have shown many many shortcomings we know and all people in India face like no running water for large number of people and food spoilage. However we need to keep in mind many factors - I can list few of them here:
- India as country is only 60 years old compared to USA. If we go back and study USA in 1920-30, it was not much different than what we see in India
- India's public transport is way better than US public transport even with crowded locals in Mumbai. Imagine if all Indians start using same level of oil consumption as USA (1 barrel per capita in India vs 24 barrel per capita in USA) - oil price would be above $200 per barrel.
If all Indians start consuming the resources to same level at USA, we better pray for Earth environment. So while I am not justifying the lack of social development, we must ack the progress done by India in last few years.
And now coming to democracy, there are very good chances that Mayawati could become next PM of India. While I personally don't like her policies (neither do I like Bush's policies), tell me when USA would have a black lady president? - it may be 50 years before we see that.
Thanks for the comments and I know the passion you feel about making India a better place and slowly but surely it is getting there.
/Shyam
The only relevant question is, which is more corrupt? In a corrupt society, the better mousetrap never gets built, because a general's son owns the state mousetrap company.
I feel that Washington may be the most corrupt city in history, thus we are witnessing the decline of the greatest civilization in history.
Which civilization will replace it, India or China?
Which is less corrupt?
Its a toss-up!
James Coulter
jamescoulter@mindspring.com