Seeking Alpha by Adding Beta

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...

Happy Earth Day! In following Stotra, we remember Mother Earth every morning before touching feet to the ground. समुद्रवसने   देवि   पर्वतस्तनमण्डले   । विष्णुपत्नि   नमस्तुभ्यं   पादस्पर्शं   क्षमस्वमे   ॥ Samudra-Vasane Devi Parvata-Stana-Mannddale | Vissnnu-Patni Namas-Tubhyam Paada-Sparsham Kssamasva-Me || Meaning : 1:  (Oh Mother Earth) O  Devi , You Who have the  Ocean  as Your  Garments , and  Mountains  as Your  Bosom , 2:  O  Consort  of  Lord Vishnu ,  Salutations  to  You ; Please  Forgive my Touch  of the  Feet  (on Earth, which is Your Holy Body). (source: Green Message site) So let's make sure that we honor Earth every day and preserve her for millions of years..After all we have only ONE! It has been six weeks since I wrote about markets. During that time, markets reached all time highs (almost touching 5300) and down by 5% from those levels. W...

Last summer was filled with the buzz of "Barbenheimer" with the simultaneous release of Barbie and Oppenheimer , which gave both movies tremendous box-office success. It was American and Hollywood marketing at its best. This single event revitalized the post-pandemic theatre-going experience. However, as awards season started, the Academy and other award committee members side-stepped the glitter of Barbie and heaped tons of nominations on Oppenheimer (personally, I feel that Barbie deserved nominations in at least a few categories). Oppenheimer got 13 nominations - one of the highest-matching records of movies like Gandhi , Titanic , and Lord of the Rings . It may end up winning in 7-8 categories. As has been the tradition over the last few years, here are my predictions for the top 7 categories: Best Picture: Oppenheimer Best Director: Christopher Nolan ( Oppenheimer ) – This would be Nolan's first win despite giving some of the all-time best films like Inception ,...

Finally the markets have reached the S&P 5000 milestone target last week, as predicted in my last blog " Are we there yet? ". It was a forgone conclusion that it would happen sometime sooner than later. The question is what's next since many investors are feeling anxious to keep invested or get into the market (by some accounts trillions are on sidelines) but at the same time are getting FOMO (fear of missing out). To answer this question, we would have to look at the Nineties... But before that, let's look at the biggest US sporting spectacle of Super Bowl on Feb 11. This year it is going to be the biggest event, with two of the best NFL teams (Niners vs Chiefs) playing. Each of these have storied quarterbacks (Mr. Irrelevant Brody and 2 times Super Bowl winner and MVP Mahomes). It's a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl when Chiefs beat Niners. Here are some the records: Record estimated TV viewership of 118 million Record cost of $7 million for 30-second adverti...

NFL championships games are today and first month of new year is almost over...While first week of new year was bumpy for markets, it soon recovered its footing and reached new all time highs and itching towards breaking milestone of 5000. Almost 6 weeks back I wrote about " Goldilocks economy taking S&P to 5K "...depending on mega-cap tech earnings in next two weeks, it could happen by the time America gets glued to Super Bowl...The expectations are rematch of  2012 Super Bowl between Ravens vs Niners (Ravens won that year 34-31).  This game was also called "Harbaugh Bowl" since two Harbaugh brothers were head coaches of two playing teams. But one could never predict what could happen in today's games since all 4 teams are great teams and deserve to play Super Bowl. In the end it would come down to showing up and playing their best games...Only Lions is the team had not won Super Bowl yet (one of the 12 teams) even though it had won 2 pre-Super Bowl NFL cha...