2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few.
- India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learners and have already started adopting their style of governing...next test would be upcoming state elections
- South Africa - Results were similar to India. Dominant party ANC's seat count went down significantly forcing it to form coalition government
- UK - It was almost guaranteed that Tories are going to lose and Labor will form government after 14 years. It's just the scale of win was surprising.
- France - Elections in France are complicated with two rounds...In between two rounds, French left/socialist parties realized what could happen and prevented outright wins by right-wing. It was still a big setback for President Macron
- Mexico - Elections in Mexico created the history by electing Claudia Sheinbaum. She is the first woman elected for this position. She comes from scientific and academic background which is a plus (this is as historic as when Obama became president of USA)
- Pakistan and Bangladesh - India's both neighbors had elections in early part of 2024. Both used to be one country till 1971. But what a difference in the way both elections were done. Bangladesh had normal elections while there is nothing much to write about elections in Pakistan
- Russia - The results were "known" even before first vote was cast
- And now the big one - United States of America
- The elections are in Nov and voters are still doubtful who will be their choices on ballots - especially democrats.
- President Biden had bad debate and subsequent gaffes in most of his public appearances. He has become the fodder for TikTok/Reels meme videos. In his decades of public service, he has served the nation very well and should be proud of his contributions and achievements. He would do a great deal of service to his nation by stepping away from the race and letting someone else take the mantle of running against Trump and possibly winning
- Both house and senate are also for grabs and if democrats don't address their presidential nominee, they run the risk of giving house, senate and president to GOP
So in summary, voters want "rotation" in the governments (or at least style of governance)
And talking about rotation, that's exactly the theme when it comes to markets. Last week the rotation from big-caps (especially Mag 7) to other 493 S&P stocks and small caps started. It was evident when Russell 2000 went up by 5% while S&P was up by less than 1%. DOW, S&P and Nasdaq indexes reached their all time highs mainly due to Mag 7. Top 3 companies (Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft) - each one of them have similar market cap as **ALL** companies in Russell 2000 (approx 3.2T). As Fed becoming more dovish with 2 rate cuts coming in 2024, the gap between big-cap and small-cap performance will narrow. One way to play this rotation is to keep investment as equal weight SPY (Big-cap), MDY (Mid-cap) and IWM (Small-cap).
Earnings season is about to get into high-gear for next 4 weeks...generally it should be as expected propelling indexes to further highs towards end of year. Won't be surprised if S&P makes a dash to 6000 during holidays.
/Shyam
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