Skip to main content

It's "Cliffmas" Time!

You must be wondering if I did spell check on title of this blog. If you are in America, you would understand what I mean by "Cliffmas" since not a day goes by when we don't hear about "Fiscal Cliff" in America. Fiscal Cliff is nothing but a name given to a situation which our politicians have created by agreeing to a deadline of Jan 1, 2013 when automatic tax increases for all Americans kick in and significant spending cuts also kick it - both at same time. This has potential to push America (and possibly world) in another recession in 2013. So no wonder there is so much talk about fiscal cliff in US. That's why this year it's not Christmas but rather "Cliffmas". Speaker Boehner's "Plan B" did not go thru since his own republican party did not support it. That was one of the major negotiation ploy speaker had. Now that it did not get enough support, it would be interesting on how he would deal in ongoing discussions with President Obama. This would definitely cause markets to panic tomorrow Expect DOW to go down by 200 points on Friday. Given the dire consequences of not agreeing to a deal, I am sure President and Speaker must be talking right now on how to navigate this and come to a solution next week. Something will get done before Jan 1, 2013 and everyone then can celebrate "Happy New Year"!
Now on other topic: What a tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary where 20 kids were shot by a madman. America wake up and ban your guns at least automatic rifles. It's about time American became serious. It took another such attack on kids in Stockton in 1989 which proded congress to enact 1994 gun-control act which expired in 2004. It's time to enact even tougher gun-control law which never expires.
According to Mayan calendar, world is supposed to end on Dec 21, 2012. For some kids and their parents, world ended in this un-fortunate tragedy. Our hearts go out for these kids and their parents.

/Shyam

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...

2026: The Year of Convergence – Melt-up, Moonshots, or Mid-cycle Correction?

Happy New Year! After another period of self-imposed hibernation from the blog—partly due to the festivals, travel, intertia and partly to watch the dust settle on a chaotic 2025—I decided to use the quiet of this New Year’s morning to finally reboot.  Looking back at my October post,  “Clicks to Tokens,”  the hunch about the AI theme held firm. We spent much of 2025 debating whether we were in 1998 or 2000. As we enter 2026, the answer seems to be "neither and both." We have the roaring optimism of the 1920s fueled by "Silicon Spirits," but with the high-speed volatility of the 2020s. So, as the calendar flips, what is in store for 2026? Markets may experience melt-up (S&P touching 8000),  with some moonshots (like SpaceX and OpenAI) IPOs or even see mid-cycle correction bringing down S&P to 6000. That's a wide range and will be decided by Four R's... Here are my thoughts on the " Four R’s ":  Rates, Robots, Rotations, and Real Assets. 1. ...

Rockets, Relics & Roaring Markets: The $4 Trillion Crossroads of 1927 and 1999

Happy (almost) Summer! After watching Kevin Warsh get sworn in at a White House ceremony two days ago, tracking three S-1 filings that could collectively hoover up more capital than every U.S. IPO since 2022 combined, and watching 26-year-old stock charts finally break to new highs — it felt like the right moment to ask the uncomfortable question out loud. Are we at a party that ends gracefully, or one that ends with the furniture on fire? The market is simultaneously flashing the neon signs of 1999  and  the orchestral excess of 1927. Most commentators reach for the dot-com playbook. I think the original Roaring Twenties is the better map. Here's why... Assembly Lines to AI Clusters Ford's River Rouge complex was the largest industrial facility on earth in the 1920s — raw iron in one end, a Model T out the other. Steel, rubber, and oil became the picks-and-shovels of the age. GE and Westinghouse were electrifying factories and homes. The infrastructure buildout  was ...