Skip to main content

Get Ready for GDP Growth !

Last week capped the good news which was coming over last few weeks with GDP contraction at 1% which was better than expected. Here are some of the snippets of good news:
  • GDP contraction slowing considerably and coming at 1%
  • Housing showing some life at last with prices in some areas increasing in 3 years
  • Inventories down significantly
  • More than half the companies which have reported beating profit expectations
  • Durable sales increasing
  • Consumer confidence holding steady
  • Car sales increasing (thanks to Cash-for-clunkers)
  • China/India still showing enviable growth
  • Stock markets across the world showing significant increases with S&P having its best 5 month run since 1938
All these factors are indications that we are on our way to slow and gradual recovery. I won't be surprised if economy/GDP shows a growth of about 0 to 0.5% in Q3CY09 and 1-2% or more in Q4CY09

Last week was pretty good for many of my earlier recommendations especially FIG, ACAS, PCX, CENX, HIG and LNC. I expect this positive momentum to continue for another one to two weeks before people become cautious for Sept/Oct.

Here is my this week's recommendations:

Company: Conseco
Symbol: CNO
Buy price: $2.80 to $ 3
Target price in 12 months: $4.50
Company Information:
Conseco, Inc. (CNO) is the holding company for a group of insurance companies operating throughout the United States that develops, markets and administers supplemental health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance and other insurance products. The Company focuses on serving the senior and middle-income markets. CNO sells its products through three distribution channels: career agents, professional independent producers (some of whom sell one or more of its product lines) and direct marketing. The Company manages its business through three primary business segments: Bankers Life, Colonial Penn and Conseco Insurance Group.

Reasons for Recommendation:
Company has pre-announaced that it would be making profit when it reports earnings next week.
This is second consecutive quarter it would be making profits thus significantly reducing survival fears. The stock has jumped more than 50% due to this profit announcement. However on it is still down by more than 60% and has significant potential. With revenues of over $4B (annual), its market cap is still around $500 M. Just check out the trajectory of GNW over last 6 months. My prediction is CNO would have similar trajectory over next 6-12 months and hence this is my weekly stock recommendation.

Kids are very excited that finally they got their own pet - bunny names Stella. They are busy playing with her leaving me alone to do some blogging.

Have a great weekend !

/Shyam


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...

2026: The Year of Convergence – Melt-up, Moonshots, or Mid-cycle Correction?

Happy New Year! After another period of self-imposed hibernation from the blog—partly due to the festivals, travel, intertia and partly to watch the dust settle on a chaotic 2025—I decided to use the quiet of this New Year’s morning to finally reboot.  Looking back at my October post,  “Clicks to Tokens,”  the hunch about the AI theme held firm. We spent much of 2025 debating whether we were in 1998 or 2000. As we enter 2026, the answer seems to be "neither and both." We have the roaring optimism of the 1920s fueled by "Silicon Spirits," but with the high-speed volatility of the 2020s. So, as the calendar flips, what is in store for 2026? Markets may experience melt-up (S&P touching 8000),  with some moonshots (like SpaceX and OpenAI) IPOs or even see mid-cycle correction bringing down S&P to 6000. That's a wide range and will be decided by Four R's... Here are my thoughts on the " Four R’s ":  Rates, Robots, Rotations, and Real Assets. 1. ...

Rockets, Relics & Roaring Markets: The $4 Trillion Crossroads of 1927 and 1999

Happy (almost) Summer! After watching Kevin Warsh get sworn in at a White House ceremony two days ago, tracking three S-1 filings that could collectively hoover up more capital than every U.S. IPO since 2022 combined, and watching 26-year-old stock charts finally break to new highs — it felt like the right moment to ask the uncomfortable question out loud. Are we at a party that ends gracefully, or one that ends with the furniture on fire? The market is simultaneously flashing the neon signs of 1999  and  the orchestral excess of 1927. Most commentators reach for the dot-com playbook. I think the original Roaring Twenties is the better map. Here's why... Assembly Lines to AI Clusters Ford's River Rouge complex was the largest industrial facility on earth in the 1920s — raw iron in one end, a Model T out the other. Steel, rubber, and oil became the picks-and-shovels of the age. GE and Westinghouse were electrifying factories and homes. The infrastructure buildout  was ...