Skip to main content

Get Ready for GDP Growth !

Last week capped the good news which was coming over last few weeks with GDP contraction at 1% which was better than expected. Here are some of the snippets of good news:
  • GDP contraction slowing considerably and coming at 1%
  • Housing showing some life at last with prices in some areas increasing in 3 years
  • Inventories down significantly
  • More than half the companies which have reported beating profit expectations
  • Durable sales increasing
  • Consumer confidence holding steady
  • Car sales increasing (thanks to Cash-for-clunkers)
  • China/India still showing enviable growth
  • Stock markets across the world showing significant increases with S&P having its best 5 month run since 1938
All these factors are indications that we are on our way to slow and gradual recovery. I won't be surprised if economy/GDP shows a growth of about 0 to 0.5% in Q3CY09 and 1-2% or more in Q4CY09

Last week was pretty good for many of my earlier recommendations especially FIG, ACAS, PCX, CENX, HIG and LNC. I expect this positive momentum to continue for another one to two weeks before people become cautious for Sept/Oct.

Here is my this week's recommendations:

Company: Conseco
Symbol: CNO
Buy price: $2.80 to $ 3
Target price in 12 months: $4.50
Company Information:
Conseco, Inc. (CNO) is the holding company for a group of insurance companies operating throughout the United States that develops, markets and administers supplemental health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance and other insurance products. The Company focuses on serving the senior and middle-income markets. CNO sells its products through three distribution channels: career agents, professional independent producers (some of whom sell one or more of its product lines) and direct marketing. The Company manages its business through three primary business segments: Bankers Life, Colonial Penn and Conseco Insurance Group.

Reasons for Recommendation:
Company has pre-announaced that it would be making profit when it reports earnings next week.
This is second consecutive quarter it would be making profits thus significantly reducing survival fears. The stock has jumped more than 50% due to this profit announcement. However on it is still down by more than 60% and has significant potential. With revenues of over $4B (annual), its market cap is still around $500 M. Just check out the trajectory of GNW over last 6 months. My prediction is CNO would have similar trajectory over next 6-12 months and hence this is my weekly stock recommendation.

Kids are very excited that finally they got their own pet - bunny names Stella. They are busy playing with her leaving me alone to do some blogging.

Have a great weekend !

/Shyam


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...

The "i" factors are back again!

Happy Earth Day! In following Stotra, we remember Mother Earth every morning before touching feet to the ground. समुद्रवसने   देवि   पर्वतस्तनमण्डले   । विष्णुपत्नि   नमस्तुभ्यं   पादस्पर्शं   क्षमस्वमे   ॥ Samudra-Vasane Devi Parvata-Stana-Mannddale | Vissnnu-Patni Namas-Tubhyam Paada-Sparsham Kssamasva-Me || Meaning : 1:  (Oh Mother Earth) O  Devi , You Who have the  Ocean  as Your  Garments , and  Mountains  as Your  Bosom , 2:  O  Consort  of  Lord Vishnu ,  Salutations  to  You ; Please  Forgive my Touch  of the  Feet  (on Earth, which is Your Holy Body). (source: Green Message site) So let's make sure that we honor Earth every day and preserve her for millions of years..After all we have only ONE! It has been six weeks since I wrote about markets. During that time, markets reached all time highs (almost touching 5300) and down by 5% from those levels. W...