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Stock of Week: Barclays (BCS or BCS-D)

Finally markets turned positive after nearly 5 weeks of negative returns in hopes of bank bailout plan to be unveiled on Monday and hopes of passing stimulus package by next weekend. After all markets are all about hopes.

Some of the Macro-trends I predicted earlier in the year are becoming real with BDI index doubling in last 4 weeks or so. If this continues on sustained basis, it would be an excellent news for shipping industry. Unfortunately my pick 2 weeks back (DRYS) is not doing that good. I recommended it between 9-10 and now it is trading at 6. I would say this provides even great buying opportunity for making 100% (rather than 50% I predicted).

Now coming to stock of week:

(you must be thinking that I am crazy to even consider recommending a bank stock but without risk there is no gain)

Company: Barclays
Symbol: BCS or BCS-D (Preferred D)
Buy price: $ 5-6 for BCS and $9-10.50 for BCS-D
Target sell price in 12 months: $10 for BCS and $18 for BCS-D

Context:
Here are reasons why I would recommend this stock:

  • Barclyas Global Investors (BGI) is crown jewel of Barclays with over $2 trillion under management. It issues the famous iShares ETF
  • Barclays is 4th largest bank in UK and only large bank which has not requested any government help
  • Pre-annouced that they would be making over 5 Billion pounds for 2008. Surprising that they are still making large profits
  • 2-weeks back this stock went all the way to $3 on fear of nationalization and recovered nearly 100%. I think nationalization fears are overblown. With Arab investors behind it, I don't think UK government would nationalize this bank and lose all its goodwill as financial center of Europe
  • Company would still pay some dividend. If that happens, it would given an excellent yield at current price. If you buy preferred (BCS-D) which has face value of $25 and coupon rate of 8%, you are looking at yield of nearly 20%
  • UK and US governments announcing plans to insure or take out bad assests, Barclyas would be in pretty good condition.
Barclays is announcing results on Feb 9. So wait for the results to be announced before taking any positions.

Good luck and have a good weekend !

/Shyam

Disclosure: I do have some position in this stock when I bought couple of weeks back

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