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Summer is almost over - now what ?

Summer is almost over. I just came from my long vacation to India and London (that's the reason there were no posts on blog even though lot of events were happening in market). Had fun in India and London (would publish some photos in later posts).

With Freddie and Fannie down by about 40% in 4 days, what an exciting week to start writing again. So what's the future for these GSEs ? If I have to make a prediction, they would be recapitalized by government some form leaving small value for existing shareholders about same as current stock prices of these companies. So what's best way to play this sector ?
Now that all bad stuff of monoline and mortgage insurance companies is published (hopefully), it may be good time to make small bets on ABK, MBI, RDN and PMI. These stocks are up by more than 100% already in last 3-4 weeks but since they have been down from double digits to below 5, there may be still 50-100% upside in these stocks (disclaimer: I may have position in some of these stocks). Whatever happens to FRE and FNM, there would be business available for RDN and PMI and hence these stocks are best from $2-3

As I predicted in my last post, oil did came down significantly and hence benefiting airline companies. Even though it has climbed from $112 back to $121, I still predict that it is headed towards $100 than towards $150 which would be good for global economy. Now that markets have found footing at around 11500, it is good time to take some positions via mutual funds. If you are daring enough, consider BKPIX (BANKS ULTRASECTOR PROFUND) under $15 or FIDSX under $65. They could return 50% in 18-24 months

It's good to be back and start blogging.

Good luck and good night!

/Shyam

Comments

Anonymous said…
Good morning to you, glad to see you back.

Please comment on what differances you see between PMI & RDN.

Do you think one is stronger then the other ?

My only concern is them having to file for some protection IE; BK chap 11. I to beleive they will some day be back to double digit numbers.

Whom will get double first ?

Thank you for your blog..
4:39 AM
Shyam said…
Both PMI and RDN have similar business models and hence it really does not matter which one you choose to invest. Just to diversify, I would (and have) invest in both companies. For these companies as well as airline companies, one has to just do one macro-level analysis - would these companies go BK or would still be in business in 2009. If you feel confident that these companies would be in business in 2009, then go ahead and invest at current levels (below $3) and they would double in by end of 2009. At that time, it does not matter which company goes to double-digit first.

Good luck!
9:35 AM
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