Since I recommended Sprint in my blog, the stock is up by nearly 15% (from 8 to 9.20) and would be up by about 5% tomorrow based on news about new pact with Clearwire and other companies on WiMax.
Is Sprint back on track ? Looking at market reaction in last couple of days, it looks like. Here are some of the catalyst which would keep Sprint stock in limelight and would keep its upward trajectory reaching to my target price of $12
/Shyam
Is Sprint back on track ? Looking at market reaction in last couple of days, it looks like. Here are some of the catalyst which would keep Sprint stock in limelight and would keep its upward trajectory reaching to my target price of $12
- Announcement about WiMax venture which would be majority owned by Sprint with $3B investments by Comcast, Google, Intel and others
- Possible spin-off of Nexttel
- Possible buy-out of Sprint by Deutsch Telecom
- Results better than expected (since expectations are so low now)
/Shyam
Comments
Just wanted to give you a heads up... MF decided to delay earnings... they are likely to get whacked again today... I am hearing they are having difficulty obtaining funds...I have no idea as to the odds or chances that they get the dosh but I can tell you this rumor is going around
something i noticed last time they got whacked
these three stocks also got hit down 20%in a few hours... I believe a true counterparty risk belies the moves... who would know better than fast money
the three to watch are taaaada:
ICE CME IBKR
good luck
PS still interested in discussing macro trends and stock ideas...let me know
Regarding macro factors, what is your take on short-term direction ? My prediction is that Dow would reach 13500 by summer - what's you take ?
So i guess to sum it up we trend down for about a month and a half(this is where im gonna buy a boat load of puts on TLT when they do the flight to saftey thing) then back up, and then that is when we go down break the march lows and have a final bottom and flushing of the system. my only caveat is that if we as a gov't attempt to do some more bailouts we will end up infecting the risk-free nature of treasuries...to some exent I believe we already have by allowing the fed to take them in exchange for ?able paper, I know its AAA but I can send you print-outs of dozens of cdo traunches that were AAA and are now about 50c on the dollar and thses are not subprime. also remeber feds balance sheet is only ~ 800bil...we are about a little more than 1/2 the way through it when you count the slosh and all the auction facilities
These are just guesses... I have loads of far dated puts on spy and qqqq that i got about 1 1/2 weeks ago when the $vix was around 18 so to some extent i am talking my book
For a little while I though I was gonna blow up on that front month 141-142 bear call spread
Obviously I have no real proof to support my thesis other than fib turn dates which have prove themselves pretty good so far. This rally sorta ended on a fib turn date... I just feel that at the rate we are gong, and the shear unwillingness of banks to show true losses (the models they are using are NOT correct)plus the consumer still levering up on credit our economy will be hurt. Right now we are able to scrape on by as the consumer is not fully geared up yet. When they get fully geared (ie credit is right at limit so no more new credit card transactions) and the lay-offs hit then it is look-out time IMO
Anyway my thesis is no different than that of most bears; consumer (70% GDP) inflation housing tightened credit etc (except that i think job losses will be coming in next 4 months)... but i do have better insight into banking and securitization policies than most. Now EUR is showing signs of weakness and global property prices are begining to decline...HELOCS have been pulled and many homeowners are in negative equity situations
Do you feel that we are in a recession, headed for a recession, getting the soft landing or what? Do you think that those march lows were the lows and we never go back to retest them??? Just curious...
Anyways... wish I had some groovy stock picks for you but I just don't. Monday should be interesting with MBI IMB PMI & SPF reporting plus FDX issuing a warning after the bell friday...
Good luck and have a nice weekend...
oh PS. I read something about the Indian economy slowing with new IT jobs hard to get...can't find the link but are you hearing anything like that???
Thanks for your insight. It's good to get others viewpoint. I wish I had got your viewpoint in Nov/Dec 07.
For now, however my opinion differs from you - we will see how markets behave in summer. I agree that markets may go down with Dow touching 12300 before touching 13500.
Monday would be interesting especially with MBI reporting (which I happen to recommend in my previous post and boy I was so wrong:-).
I am currently recommending Spring (S) and Aruba (Arun) - both should give returns of about 20-25% from current levels in next 12 months.
Regarding your query about Indian IT jobs, check out the link at
http://publication.samachar.com/pub_article.php?id=1889297&navname=Business%20&moreurl=http://publication.samachar.com/economictimes/business/business.php&homeurl=http://business.samachar.com
Good to see your insights
Have a good weekend
that is pretty cool...what type segment of bus are you going to go into???
PS do you know where i got my larry goldstone handle from
oh ya and regarding that ABK call its all good...hell you would have said FNM which lost just as much nearly and i would have called you crazzzzy too but you woulda been up 3-4 handles on the day i think
Im hoping MNI IMB SPF etc set off a lil squeeze so i can re-load on my old pals WM and WB
It was nice to see someone write about how they use OFHEO instead of Case-schiller
i could told you that stuff 2q's ago... anywhoo they are still gambling on the housing market getting better and if it doesn't they both will need even more equity capital...WB will likely further cut the divi and issue more pref and common
WM... well that is just a mess...but a crazy mess nonetheless
anywhoo good article about fnm and fre
puts the leverage into perspective
check out the graphic
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/business/06fannie.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1210472111-3yM/GRJCkUxgVLJmH66ufw
You are right and I am also as optimistic as you and in fact I agree that we may see 20-25% return within next 6 months. However events could happen which could delay sprint turnaround (aka Motorola) and if someone is looking for long term investment, Sprint provides much better opportunity than just investing in S&P500