Skip to main content

Model Portfolio: Q1

As promised, I have been tracking my model portfolio regularly and here are the results and highlights of Q107 results.

  • Model portfolio resturns were 2.22 % (compared with .6% for S&P). So at least till now, I am track to beat S&P by 2% points by end of year
  • Best performaing asset was FSESX: FIDELITY SELECT ENERGY SERVICES which returned 15.59% and Yahoo stock was second with 12.73% return
  • Worst performaing asset was Cisco stock which was down by 10.36%. Second worst was FXI:ISHARES TR FTSE INDX which was down by 3.31%
  • Overall till now the portfolio is well balanced and even during late Feb sell-off held pretty well.
  • I am not doing any adjustments to this model portfolio
Here are my forecasts for overall market:
  • USA market will go sideways for next quarter till there is clarity on economy and interest rate direction
  • Chinese market will keep on going upwards and Shanghai Index may break thru 3500 by quarter end (from 3250+ now)
  • Indian markets will continue to go sideways and BSE index will touch 11500 before recovering to 13000. Elections in most populous state UP will impact elections (congress may do poorly in this state)
  • Best investments would be still to get overall international exposure with Europe offering best risk/reward
/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...
Post a Comment
Read more

2026: The Year of Convergence – Melt-up, Moonshots, or Mid-cycle Correction?

Happy New Year! After another period of self-imposed hibernation from the blog—partly due to the festivals, travel, intertia and partly to watch the dust settle on a chaotic 2025—I decided to use the quiet of this New Year’s morning to finally reboot.  Looking back at my October post,  “Clicks to Tokens,”  the hunch about the AI theme held firm. We spent much of 2025 debating whether we were in 1998 or 2000. As we enter 2026, the answer seems to be "neither and both." We have the roaring optimism of the 1920s fueled by "Silicon Spirits," but with the high-speed volatility of the 2020s. So, as the calendar flips, what is in store for 2026? Markets may experience melt-up (S&P touching 8000),  with some moonshots (like SpaceX and OpenAI) IPOs or even see mid-cycle correction bringing down S&P to 6000. That's a wide range and will be decided by Four R's... Here are my thoughts on the " Four R’s ":  Rates, Robots, Rotations, and Real Assets. 1. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Stree-Dhan vs. Oracle of Omaha!

Happy February! After another brief hibernation from the blog—partly to digest the early year volatility and partly to observe the shifting sands of global liquidity—it’s time to look at some fascinating disconnects in the market. Lately, I’ve been thinking about the "Unbeatable Asset Class." No, I’m not talking about the S&P 500 or Nvidia. I’m talking about a collective force that has quietly outperformed the "Oracle of Omaha" for over two decades. 1. The Golden Saree: Indian Women vs. Warren Buffett If you look at the performance of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) since the launch of the GLD ETF (the first gold ETF) in late 2004, you’ll find a startling reality. While Buffett is the gold standard of value investing, the "Gold Standard" itself—specifically in the hands of Indian households—has been a formidable rival. Data shows that since the inception of the GLD ETF in November 2004, the total return on Gold has actually surpassed Berkshire Hathaway. I...
Post a Comment
Read more