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India update and stock finds

Since my last posting on "seeking alpha in Indian market", my recommendation "Teledata Informatics" has increased nearly 40% in 2 months (from 47 to 65+) when BSE sensex has moved only sideways. Similary my last year's recommendations (Aptech) is doing great and just crossed 260+. I wish I can start some type of hedge fund focusssed on Indian market and apply my "alpha" finding skills:-)

My another prediction about SSE Composite Index crossing 3500 has already came true. It is trading at 3560+ as of Monday 4/16. IMO it is getting way overheated even to my taste. But momentum is very strong and I won't be surprised if it crosses 4000 by year end but along the way there would be lot of volatility.

Here is another "alpha" stock in India market:

Zee news:
This is spinoff from Zee entertainment mainly focussed on news in various languages. There are many news only channels in India (NDTV, Aaj-Tak, Doordharshan and so on) but Zee is one of the most recognised channel in India and has extensive reach. We Indians are also crazy about getting latest news and in many shops, some of these channels are on for most of the day. As an indepedent company, market has not realized full potential of Zee news and at current price of about 40 rupees, it offers great potential for significant returns (and hence alpha). My target price is 100 ruppes by Dec 2008 returning 150% in 21 months.

(Discliamer: I own small quantity of Zee news which I bought at around 38)

Next few weeks is going to be busy with my MBA final paper/homework submissions coming - looking forward to wrapping up spring quarter and having break for summer

Comments

Arup Bhanja said…
Hi Shyam,

Its great to come across such invigorating research in finance after much searching.. found your blog on rediff money while searching for comments on teledata - I bought some quantity at 47 [Feb 07].

I am currently in my CFA and I found your research and insights great for my taste.

Lets keep in touch. My website is at arupbhanja.com [you can get my email address there at the bottom].

Regards,
Arup Bhanja
ClearWater Technology,
Bangalore, INDIA.
4:57 AM
Unknown said…
hi shyam,
nice to see your blog especially your equity research part. Shyam, I am a software engineer with deep interest in equities. I need your opnion on 4 stocks viz.

1. Teledata Info
2. SRF Ltd.
3. Arvind Mills
4. Paramount Communications.

As per my calculations if I enter in at current prices, I can expect good profits within a span of 1-1.5 Yrs.

am I right?
expecting reply.......
ravisharma8680@gmail.com
4:10 AM
Shyam said…
Ravi,

I have not studied other stocks closely. About Teledata, you can still hold till it crosses 100 (it is already at 87). IMO, with latest results, it's P/E is again about 2 to 2.5 and it deserves P/E of 5. One caution: Once Teledata gets split into 3 companies, each company may trade differently so you may want to watch it closely.

Regarding Arvind Mills, it is well-run company but unfortunately growth is limited. So if you are looking for 20% returns or so with limited downside, you may want to take a position

Good luck
8:44 PM
R.S. SUNDARAM said…
Hi: I started visiting your site very recently. It is great. Regarding Teledata, I want to ask you that after today's movement, what do you feel? Will it fall down further? Your comments please. Sundaram
7:03 AM
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