Skip to main content

Predictions 2006

Since this is first time I am writing blog on a new year eve and I am kind of fond of predicting some of the stock actions, I thought let me put it in writing so I can evaluate if they were on target or not. Some of these may be obvious but nonetheless let me put them in writing. I am willing to take bets (Bhandi - are you up for it:-)

Top 5 stock predictions:

Google: Google hitting $ 500 (pre-split)in next 6 months (before 7/1/06), gets included in S&P and gets split
PALM: Will hit $ 40 by year-end
Apple: Will split 2:1 and hit $ 42 after split ($ 84 before split)
EBAY: Will cross $ 50 in next 9 months (before 10/1/06)
Click Commerce (CKCM): An RFID vendor will cross $ 30 (currently at $ 21)

Mutual Funds:
- Japan and Korea based mutual funds continue to do well. Watch out for Profunds Ultra Japan and fidelity Korea funds
- Health care industry would continue to return decent returns

Indian stocks:
- BSE index will cross 10500 by year end
- Aptech will touch 200 in one year (currently at 138)
- Apollo Hostpitals will reach 625 in one year (currently at 490). Medical tourism will start gaining major traction and since Apollo is best positioned in this space will start getting noticed
- Hexaware Technologies will reach 180 by year end (currently at 130)

Trends in Politics:
- By year end, Hillay will start giving indications about being candidate for 2008 presidential election
- John McCain's candidacy on Republican ticket will start getting momentum
- No major changes in Indian Politics other than BJP trying to stay relavent by creating some new about internal party politics

Personal resolutions:
- Excersize at least 2 days a week (just a simple jog in morning)
- Other resolutions are too private to list them here:-)

Happy new year !

Shyam

Comments

Anonymous said…
तुमची भविष्यवाणी ब-यापैकी खरी ठरली - गुगलचे समभाग ५०० डॉलरला स्पर्शून गेले होते. आता ४६२ च्या आसपास आहेत. तसेच, मुंबई शेयर बाजाराचा निर्देशांक १०५०० च्या बराच वर गेला. अभिनंदन! आता २००७ साठी काय अंदाज आहे? :)

Popular posts from this blog

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...

2026: The Year of Convergence – Melt-up, Moonshots, or Mid-cycle Correction?

Happy New Year! After another period of self-imposed hibernation from the blog—partly due to the festivals, travel, intertia and partly to watch the dust settle on a chaotic 2025—I decided to use the quiet of this New Year’s morning to finally reboot.  Looking back at my October post,  “Clicks to Tokens,”  the hunch about the AI theme held firm. We spent much of 2025 debating whether we were in 1998 or 2000. As we enter 2026, the answer seems to be "neither and both." We have the roaring optimism of the 1920s fueled by "Silicon Spirits," but with the high-speed volatility of the 2020s. So, as the calendar flips, what is in store for 2026? Markets may experience melt-up (S&P touching 8000),  with some moonshots (like SpaceX and OpenAI) IPOs or even see mid-cycle correction bringing down S&P to 6000. That's a wide range and will be decided by Four R's... Here are my thoughts on the " Four R’s ":  Rates, Robots, Rotations, and Real Assets. 1. ...

Rockets, Relics & Roaring Markets: The $4 Trillion Crossroads of 1927 and 1999

Happy (almost) Summer! After watching Kevin Warsh get sworn in at a White House ceremony two days ago, tracking three S-1 filings that could collectively hoover up more capital than every U.S. IPO since 2022 combined, and watching 26-year-old stock charts finally break to new highs — it felt like the right moment to ask the uncomfortable question out loud. Are we at a party that ends gracefully, or one that ends with the furniture on fire? The market is simultaneously flashing the neon signs of 1999  and  the orchestral excess of 1927. Most commentators reach for the dot-com playbook. I think the original Roaring Twenties is the better map. Here's why... Assembly Lines to AI Clusters Ford's River Rouge complex was the largest industrial facility on earth in the 1920s — raw iron in one end, a Model T out the other. Steel, rubber, and oil became the picks-and-shovels of the age. GE and Westinghouse were electrifying factories and homes. The infrastructure buildout  was ...