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Social Contract and Income In-equality!

One would think that leader of capitalism USA and only large communist nation (which matters) China would have very different problems. However if you pay closer attention to what's happening in Washington and Beijing and reasons behind it, you would wonder if both systems have created similar societies and trying to address the problem with only slight variations in their approach,

Last 3 decades saw explosive growth in economies and corresponding wealth creation. After financial crisis of 2008-09 it has increased the wealth gap significantly. By some accounts, top 1% of population has 15 times more wealth than bottom 50%. Unicorns (startups valued at more than billion $) are being created every day. Even in China wealth at top has been very concentrated. President Xi is determined to address this with force of regulations as well as policies. In US, progressives are putting pressure on President Biden to enact $3.5 trillion "social contract" bill (and they are willing to take infrastructure bill as hostage). In Bay Area, new engineer with CS/Engineering degree may be earning more than a tenured professor or in some cases medical doctors. One can argue that it's simple supply and demand...but capitalist system is supposed to address this to bring equilibrium...

Coming to market analysis - Sept month was true to its reputation being the worst month for markets. This year was no exception with S&P down by 4.5%. It also sets up markets nicely for last quarter of year. It's like deja-vu of 2011 when similar debt limit discussions and direction FED would take on bond-buying and interest rates brought down markets in late summer/early fall....If 2011 pattern holds, markets should reach all time highs by end of year or early part of 2022.

Chinese regulations continue to impact valuations of Chinese companies and in some cases like BABA or other Chinese web companies, the "China Discount" has reached 50%. That reminds me of Energy Sector during depth of Pandemic in 2020. They were being sold at 50-75% discount to underlying assets. One year later, stocks of many energy companies (which survived) are up by 50-200%, Would that happen to stocks of Chinese companies? China is very big market and despite strict regulations, most of these big Chinese Web companies would survive and eventually prosper and China discount would go down to maybe 20-25%. So if you are daring enough, look at the recommendations in my previous blog. KWEB ($47) is one way to get exposure to Chinese Web companies without single company risk (usual disclaimer applies: Do your own due diligence before investing)

Sports season is heating up with IPL,  College Football and NFL in full swing. I am looking forward to ICC Cricket T20 World Cup. So get ready for sports matchups, movies and holidays!

/Shyam

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