As we are approaching holiday season and end of 2020, markets seem to have already moved into 2021 and as incorporating likely outcomes in 2021 with continued upward movement. Markets are trading close to all time highs (even after discounting last few days of sideway moments). Let's look at the 5 "V" Factors which are at play.
Virus: COVID-19 virus would continue to dominate our lives well into 2021. We are into 3rd wave and this wave is even stronger than first two waves. Daily infections in US are over 150,000 and hospitalizations are also increasing at alarming rate. Various states and local governments are going back to curfews and partial lockdowns. Restaurants which saw some signs of life are being shut again. Even Thanksgiving holiday would be different this time with limited attendance at dinners and "no rush" Black Friday to start the most important holiday shopping season. Lack of coherent policy and fatigue of staying at home is causing this surge. This is negative V factor
Vaccine: Last two Mondays, markets got boost because of extremely good news on efficacy of vaccines (95%) by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna. Both use mRNA technology and with expedited approvals, both can start supplying vaccines in Dec. In next 3-4 months, nearly 100 million people can get vaccinated if governments can co-ordinate and everyone involved in healthcare make this as priority. This is one thing which was done well with Operation WarpSpeed by Trump administration. If 50% of US population gets vaccinated by Spring'21, economy can start returning to normal by Summer. This is positive V factor
Victory: While President Trump keeps on fighting the election results, Joe Biden's victory was convincing (306-232) and as due process of state by state certifications happen, Trump would realize that his efforts are futile. As I wrote in congratulatory blog, President Joe Biden can convert his victory into VICTORY agenda when he takes charge of the office. In all, this is positive V factor
Volatility: Despite so many market moving events like Pandemic, biggest economic downturn since depression, elections and unpredictable President, after initial March swoon, volatility in markets have been normal. This is indicated by VIX which is around 22. Once in a while it shoots up to 30-40 range but then returns to normal range of 15-25. Watch out for this to get a sense of overall market mood. This is positive V factor
Vehicles: Electric Vehicles have taken the leadership role in markets. With Tesla's inclusion in S&P and nearly 500 billion valuation (which is more than 4 largest auto companies Toyota, Volkswagen, GM and Ford combined), markets have voted that there is major shift taking place. In fact some of the Chinese EV companies have outperformed even Tesla's 400% gain (NIO is up by more than 1200% this year - this was one of my 20 picks as recommended in 2020 blog at start of year. That time NIO stock was at $3.3 and now its close to $50). Would the trend continue in 2021? If we go back 100 years, 1920's was the decade of auto companies and GM was #1 company. Decade of 2020's would repeat the pattern - only change is IC engine is replaced by batteries. However this time Chinese EV auto companies (NIO, LI Auto, XPEV and tens of other companies) would take lead along with Tesla. No wonder GM has committed to invest $27 Billion in next 5 years in EV. This is positive V factor.
In all, 4 out of 5 are positive factors. That's why markets are near all time highs. When you look past 1H2021, things look much better in 2H2021 and beyond.
Happy Thanksgiving!
/Shyam
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