Almost every article you may have read regarding current COVID pandemic, you would see references to Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919. But I was surprised to read that just 11 years back, we had similarly wide-spread Swine Flu pandemic in 2009. The CDC site gives very detailed information and timeline about this pandemic. Let's look at some of the comparisons and timelines and learn/predict the course of COVID pandemic
H1N1 Pandemic 2009:
- First case detected in USA on Apr 15. CDC reported to WHO 3 days later
- 2 weeks later, WHO declared that Pandemic alert
- The distribution of tests started by CDC in May
- Jun 11: WHO officially declared it as Pandemic (less than 2 months after first case)
- Jun 25: Infections reached 1 million
- July: Reached peak of first wave and Vaccine trials begin
- Oct: Vaccine approved and second wave started
- Some school closures but not wide-spread
- Nov/Dec: 5 vaccines approved and CDC put orders of 100 million doses
- Aug 11, 2010: WHO officially declared end of H1N1 Pandemic (14 months duration)
- Total infections: US only: 60 million; World-wise: 700 million to 1.4 Billion; Deaths: US: 13000; Worldwide:300,000
- First year of Obama Presidency
COVID Pandemic 2020:
- First case detected in Wuhan, China sometime in Dec 2019
- China informed WHO on Dec 31, 2019
- WHO declared Pandemic on March 11 (3 months later). The delay of one month and lack of preparedness by most governments (central and states) can be attributed to significant deaths.
- Current stats: US: Over 5 Million infections and 175,000 deaths; 21 million infections and over 700,000 deaths and unfortunately counting
- Over 100 vaccinations in trials and Government ordered over 500 million doses from multiple companies
- Over 50% schools moved to online only
- Last year of Trump's first (and most likely last) term and election year
The financial crisis of 2008-2009 was already wrecking US and world economies when Pandemic came.
The US and world economies were riding high when COVID 2019 Pandemic came. COVID Pandemic caused the wreckage of US economies with unemployment reaching depression levels
In both cases, markets tanked and reached bottom in March only to recover sharply. Given there are so many similarities, what do we expect in next few months:
- Multiple vaccinations will be approved in late 2020. There would be campaign to vaccinate world population (similar to Apr 2010 campaign is US)
- The COVID-19 Pandemic will end (as declared by WHO) in second half of 2021
- Multiple stimulus would be passed to support the economy and unemployed population
- Fed will keep all its schemes and interest rates low for foreseeable future
- Markets would continue to go up given the fiscal and monetary stimulus support as well as potential of economy rebounding sharply
So as investor, I would recommend continue to make slow but steady investments and don't chase bubble stocks. Last 2 weeks had demonstrated that markets are broadening and sector rotation has started. Small caps are up by 7% while S&P is struggling to break thru all time high of 3386. Check out IWM (small caps) and MDY (mid-caps) ETF. They have higher potential to catch up to rally of big-caps and hence outperforming larger brother SPY
For my Indian friends, Happy Independence Day!
/Shyam
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