Skip to main content

Memorial Day: Warriors of "New War"

In US last Monday of May is  observed as Memorial Day to remember the soldiers who had fallen while serving in US Military. Its somber day to remember the men and women who gave their lives to protect the freedom and security of Americans and all the people of free world. This year world is fighting a new war against invisible enemy. So in addition to fallen soldiers, let's also remember the new warriors!

  • People who lost their lives prematurely due to COVID-19 infections
  • Healthcare professionals who are fighting the war against the COVID-19 virus
  • Economists and policy makers who are working non-stop to limit the economic damage caused by lockdowns
  • Small businessmen who are fighting for survival of their small businesses while protecting employees who work for them
  • Teachers who adopted to remote teaching to make sure that their students continue to get educated 
  • Class of 2020: The seniors who are graduating this year are missing one of their biggest celebrations in life of graduating from high-school or college. All the congratulations, celebrations and parties have moved to virtual. There is no "Walking". I am proud of Class of 2020 that they have adopted to virtual graduation celebrations for larger good of containing the spread of virus.
  • The researchers who are working frantically to find the new and faster ways of testing, cure and vaccine
  • Big companies who are looking after their employees and communities
  • America is fortunate to have "General" Powell who is leading the war on economic damage to avoid another depression and "General" Dr. Fauci who is guiding the policymakers regarding balance of saving lives (against virus) and livelihoods (against lockdowns)
Despite all the bad news about spread of virus (closing on 5 million infections) and deaths caused due to COVID-19 (reaching 400,000) and depression era economic reports (40 million unemployed, 20% unemployment, 40% GDP contraction), Markets seem to be looking forward to second half of 2020. After record breaking gains in Apr, markets are ignoring "Sell in May and Walk Away" mantra and inching towards milestones (DOW 25K, S&P 3K and Nasdaq 9500). Till now the markets were led by high-techs and cyclicals. In last few days, participation is widening with energy and financials companies participating in the upward movement. One should start looking into sector rotation from "WFH" companies to "Get Out" companies. That means sectors like energy, leisure, in-person shopping in malls, restaurants should start getting some attention. Many stocks in these sectors have gone up significantly over last few weeks. Many companies are declaring bankruptcies (JC Penny, Hertz, Neiman Marcus and more to come). The stocks of many established and large companies are still down by 40-60%. So if you can find the survivors from the debris, this could be once-in-decade opportunity to build long-term diversified portfolio.

That's all for now. Let's remember the fallen on this Memorial Day and fight the war on virus together!

/Shyam


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...

The Politics and Gamesmanship of TikTok!

TikTok is less than 3 hours from going dark on USA's east coast if TikTok owner Bytedance (and Chinese Government) follows thru its "bluff" to honor the law " Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" which goes into effect on Jan 19, 2025. And suddenly there is lots of politics and gamesmanship around TikTok.. Let's look at the players and their positions US Congress: The " TikTok Ban" law was passed by congress with bipartisan support and coincidently it goes into effect one day before new administration takes charge. Everyone knew the exact date and time of oath taking ceremony of new President...but maybe the congress did not think that there would be change of President and did not bother to put effective date post new government taking charge...that created a window of 36 hours of "law being in effect" unless... President Biden: Biden himself did not think that he won't be President for 2nd term. S...