The month of March ended. This month truly changed the world for now. At the start of month, COVID was contained within China with only single digit infected cases showing up in Seattle area and Italy. In fact first death attributed to coronavirus in America happened just before the month started. And at end of month, deaths in America due to virus had crossed 5000 and daily toll almost reaching to 1000+. China was the epicenter of pandemic in Jan and Feb. Europe became the epicenter during March and towards end of March, USA (especially New York) had become epicenter of this pandemic. There are many experts busy thinking of "what-if" scenarios - what if WHO and China would have been more forthcoming and transparent about seriousness of spread; what if Trump had ordered total lock-down in Feb or NY governor Cuomo had prepared NY state better or New Orleans had cancelled its annual Mardi Gras. Many many what-if scenarios. Yes of course many of these would have helped contain the virus and reduced the human healthcare and economic toll. However this month showed how world was woefully un-prepared to deal with pandemic in 21st century. That means no amount of temporary steps would have prevented this spread. The last such world-wide pandemic which killed millions of people was 100 years back. Subsequent pandemic (SARS, MERS etc) were contained with relatively small cost since they were difficult to spread. Bill Gates and many other experts had warned about such pandemic. But humans do not act till the threat is "clear and present" danger. Even today we can see it in terms of human reaction to "Global Warming". When everything comes back to normal, it's possible that this pandemic would have costed more to world economy in terms of loss of wealth, GDP loss and cost of healthcare than 20th century world-war(s)!
If you take any business matrix (number of passengers flying, number of restaurants open etc), its down by 80-90% from start of March to end of March. The businesses are grasping to survive. After all how do you survive if revenues goes from 100 to zero with no line of sight when it would come back to normal. Unemployment in US went from 50 year low to 90 year high (last time unemployment rate peaked at 25% was in 1929 during great depression). The capitalist countries became socialist countries in one month (I full support the moves by Governments to help citizens during these difficult times). The President who tried to kill "Obamacare" multiple times suddenly wants to expand Medicare for all! DOW index which almost touched 30000 at start of month is trying to keep its head above 20000 by end of month. Read the article in WSJ titled "The Month that Changed Everything" which gives chronology of events during March
What should an investor do in times like this? My simple advice is - don't sell but don't buy also! Let economy and market find its footing, The signs to watch out would be when you and your family feel comfortable to go out for dinner or movie, people start work from offices and kids start playing in playgrounds. Till then, do cost-averaging investments on periodic basis in the blue chip companies which you always wanted to buy.
The month that changed the world had ended. Next few months will tell us if world had changed for now or forever.
Stay safe and healthy!
/Shyam
If you take any business matrix (number of passengers flying, number of restaurants open etc), its down by 80-90% from start of March to end of March. The businesses are grasping to survive. After all how do you survive if revenues goes from 100 to zero with no line of sight when it would come back to normal. Unemployment in US went from 50 year low to 90 year high (last time unemployment rate peaked at 25% was in 1929 during great depression). The capitalist countries became socialist countries in one month (I full support the moves by Governments to help citizens during these difficult times). The President who tried to kill "Obamacare" multiple times suddenly wants to expand Medicare for all! DOW index which almost touched 30000 at start of month is trying to keep its head above 20000 by end of month. Read the article in WSJ titled "The Month that Changed Everything" which gives chronology of events during March
What should an investor do in times like this? My simple advice is - don't sell but don't buy also! Let economy and market find its footing, The signs to watch out would be when you and your family feel comfortable to go out for dinner or movie, people start work from offices and kids start playing in playgrounds. Till then, do cost-averaging investments on periodic basis in the blue chip companies which you always wanted to buy.
The month that changed the world had ended. Next few months will tell us if world had changed for now or forever.
Stay safe and healthy!
/Shyam
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