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The New Normal!

Last week the COVID-19 hit home on US shores. Finally US woke up to the upcoming pandemic and   looking at Europe, what could happen. I really have sympathy for Italy that it became worst affected country (after China) and that may be due to all the famous tourist spots. We were in Barcelona at end of Jan and life was going on usual even though 60 million Chinese were quarantined. No one thought world would be at this stage 5 weeks later! And given the speed at which it is spreading, things would get worse before they get better. That brings me to the topic of "The New Normal".
Last week almost all US employees of big tech companies started working from home till further notice. Colleges moved to virtual classes and plans to continue that till end of school year. That means all of spring quarter moving virtual. Even convocations most likely will move to virtual. That would be a big dis-appointment since that's once-in-a-lifetime experience graduates of class of 2020 would be missing out. But given the larger goal of avoiding repeat of 1919 Spanish flu pandemic, it's small sacrifice!

The New Normal is:

  • Working from home
  • Attending virtual college
  • No schools
  • No eating out
  • No movies
  • No sports events to attend
  • No social gatherings
  • 1000 point moves on DOW on daily basis
  • Namaste is new handshake
  • Facemask is new fashion accessory
  • Toilet paper and sanitizer are the most wanted gifts
  • Streaming is the new "Friday movie outing"
  • Absolute no complaints on traffic
  • Climate improving significantly
  • Social distancing is the new motto
The question is how long this new normal would last? While there is lot of pain and sacrifices, some good habits would and should become norm even after world recovers and comes back to normal.

Finally US Government started taking the pandemic threat seriously and started preparing for potential onslaught of COVID cases in US. President, Congress and Fed are all coming together to unleash the power of US financial and monetary policies to give support to US economy. After all this crisis has potential to be similar to dot.com bubble bust, 9/11 and financial crisis combined!
Markets had fastest drop from bull market to bear market (19 days). Even during depression time, it took longer than that. Would all the massive stimulus coming in next few weeks make it the shortest bear market? It depends on earnings season starting in about 4 weeks. It's given that world economy will have recession - would it be shallow or long? That depends on if countries are able to flatten the curve of virus spread and get it under control in next few weeks/months!
It's no more only "China" problem. We are all in this together now. So let's fight the world-war-3 together against the enemy which is invisible and knows no borders! I am confident we will win as humanity had always in many similar crisis.

Stay safe and healthy!

/Shyam
 




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