Skip to main content

The Week of Climax!

Once in a while a week comes when so many events line up that it feels like we are reaching climax of many! Next week feels like that.  Let's look at some of the events which could reach climax

Finals Week:
Since both my kids are in college, I know when is Finals Week and what it means. Next week is finals week for them (one of the final is on today Sunday - who schedules final exams on Sunday?) Knowing the pressure of finals and maintaining grades, I am only imagine the relief these kids will have at end of week. I am definitely looking forward to seeing smiles on their faces after finals are over!

Trade-War:
While President Trump may say that there is no deadline, he has to make a call if he plans to put tariffs on rest of Chinese imports (including iPhones) on Dec 15 or not. That would give a signal to world if phase 1 deal is near or would continue what has been going on for last 12-18 months. So in a way, Dec 15 would be a day of climax for trade war between US and China. This would also be market moving event.

Brexit:
After 3 and half years of countless negotiations, potential deals, failed votes in UK parliament, 3 prime ministers and as many elections, it has come down to Dec 12 elections. This election is almost like re-referendum on Brexit. UK citizens have a choice if they want Brexit or not and accordingly vote. The only good thing is that finally this Brexit drama would be over - hope so since you can never predict what UK politicians may do.

Fed Meeting:
Fed is having its last meeting of 2019 to decide interest rate direction. Exactly 12 months back, Fed spooked market by increasing the rate in last meeting of 2018 and giving indication that more increases are coming. What a difference 12 months make?  Fed not only changed the course but reduced interest rates 3 times since then. This meeting would be less dramatic. Fed would stay the course of pause given mixed signals on economy, employment and inflation. Most likely 2020 FED meetings would be "no event or do nothing" and that would be a good thing.

Economy and Markets:
Economic signals are mixed. Both Manufacturing and services readings are below expectations signaling potential trouble in making. Inflation is low. Employment is again at 50 year low with Nov employment report is strongest in many months. Holiday shopping season started with a bang (even though crowds in malls are noticeably less - that means online shopping is really becoming mainstream). Markets are generally reacting positively and are up by 28% till date in 2019. Another 2-3% increase and it will beat 2013 record. With best month for markets underway, S&P can touch 3200 before year end (my prediction was 3100 few weeks back). 

So let's wrap these climax events and get ready for holidays. My next update would be in new year with 20 recommendations for 2020!

Happy Holidays!
/Shyam

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...

The Politics and Gamesmanship of TikTok!

TikTok is less than 3 hours from going dark on USA's east coast if TikTok owner Bytedance (and Chinese Government) follows thru its "bluff" to honor the law " Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" which goes into effect on Jan 19, 2025. And suddenly there is lots of politics and gamesmanship around TikTok.. Let's look at the players and their positions US Congress: The " TikTok Ban" law was passed by congress with bipartisan support and coincidently it goes into effect one day before new administration takes charge. Everyone knew the exact date and time of oath taking ceremony of new President...but maybe the congress did not think that there would be change of President and did not bother to put effective date post new government taking charge...that created a window of 36 hours of "law being in effect" unless... President Biden: Biden himself did not think that he won't be President for 2nd term. S...