Unicorn which is supposed to be rare is known to many people working in tech or general investment community. Let's look at Wikipedia definition: The unicorn is a legendary creature that has been described since antiquity as a beast with a single large, pointed, spiraling horn projecting from its forehead. In private market (per-IPO) unicorn means startup which has billion $ valuation before IPO. This used to be very rare and hence association with unicorn! Based on latest Google search, there are over 300 "unicorns" (it used to around 100 in 2015). Let's look at journey of these unicorns from "Hope, Hype and Reality"!
Hope:
By definition, startups are all about hope of starting something new, changing the industry and world and improving lives of billion people. They are also about dreams of founders and employees to make big in terms of monetary rewards. VC community is able to fund these with initial capital, guidance and groom them to become unicorn in hopes of multiple times return on their investment. Common people also get excited when they read the stories of college dropouts becoming billionaire and richest people on planet. They can see that anyone with dreams can make it big without inheritance (like old times). Investing community ride their hopes on potential to participate in outsized returns like they have done in last 2-3 decades by investing in Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google and so on! So hopes all around....
Hype:
The companies start getting their products/services out which start getting wide-scale adoption. The heady triple-digit growth (albeit on very small base) get everyone excited and every financing round becomes a news. In span of 2-3 years, private valuations from millions to billions making them "unicorns". The excitement continues since many VCs join later financing rounds at every higher valuations reaching the climax of valuations of tens of billions (WeWork at $47B, Juul at $38B and so on). In this phase profits don't matter. As they say, growth at any cost becomes the only mantra! Companies start expanding in new markets because it feels like nothing will go wrong. Founders start getting coverage in magazines and start flying in private jets. And then..... the phase of reality starts!
Reality:
In this phase, suddenly profits matter and law of large numbers start catching up. Growth slows from triple digits to under 30%. Founders start cashing out in ever increasing valuation rounds. IPO talks start because "profit at all costs" need new funding and VC funding dries up. Employees want to cash out. The new markets do not pan out and companies remain "single pony trick" (no wonder Unicorn has only one horn). Despite all these challenges, IPO happen and first day pop happens. And then over next six months, gravity brings down stock to below IPO price. Lockups expire and employees start cashing out even if stock if 50% below their post-IPO highs. Many times, change of management (including CEO) happen. The vision evolves from "changing the world" to "making profits" and "survival". And then the real winners (like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Salesforce, Facebook, Google, Netflix) emerge which really change the way world works!
Looking at current set of companies, Uber seems to have gone thru all three phases and has most potential to survive and prosper. Because it is changing the way we commute!
/Shyam
Hope:
By definition, startups are all about hope of starting something new, changing the industry and world and improving lives of billion people. They are also about dreams of founders and employees to make big in terms of monetary rewards. VC community is able to fund these with initial capital, guidance and groom them to become unicorn in hopes of multiple times return on their investment. Common people also get excited when they read the stories of college dropouts becoming billionaire and richest people on planet. They can see that anyone with dreams can make it big without inheritance (like old times). Investing community ride their hopes on potential to participate in outsized returns like they have done in last 2-3 decades by investing in Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google and so on! So hopes all around....
Hype:
The companies start getting their products/services out which start getting wide-scale adoption. The heady triple-digit growth (albeit on very small base) get everyone excited and every financing round becomes a news. In span of 2-3 years, private valuations from millions to billions making them "unicorns". The excitement continues since many VCs join later financing rounds at every higher valuations reaching the climax of valuations of tens of billions (WeWork at $47B, Juul at $38B and so on). In this phase profits don't matter. As they say, growth at any cost becomes the only mantra! Companies start expanding in new markets because it feels like nothing will go wrong. Founders start getting coverage in magazines and start flying in private jets. And then..... the phase of reality starts!
Reality:
In this phase, suddenly profits matter and law of large numbers start catching up. Growth slows from triple digits to under 30%. Founders start cashing out in ever increasing valuation rounds. IPO talks start because "profit at all costs" need new funding and VC funding dries up. Employees want to cash out. The new markets do not pan out and companies remain "single pony trick" (no wonder Unicorn has only one horn). Despite all these challenges, IPO happen and first day pop happens. And then over next six months, gravity brings down stock to below IPO price. Lockups expire and employees start cashing out even if stock if 50% below their post-IPO highs. Many times, change of management (including CEO) happen. The vision evolves from "changing the world" to "making profits" and "survival". And then the real winners (like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Salesforce, Facebook, Google, Netflix) emerge which really change the way world works!
Looking at current set of companies, Uber seems to have gone thru all three phases and has most potential to survive and prosper. Because it is changing the way we commute!
/Shyam
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