Skip to main content

Bull in China (Shop) Stocks?

Past few years on Oscar Sunday, I have wrote blogs titled "and Oscar goes to..." and most of the times my prediction rate was above 50-75%. This year Oscar event seems to be creating more and more controversies and overall event seems to get boring (as compared to other choices available to spend Sunday evening). Nevertheless, I love movies so here are my predictions for this year's Oscar winners:

  1. Best Picture - Roma (this would be historic recognition to streaming world)
  2. Best Director - Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
  3. Actor in leading role - Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
  4. Actress in leading role - Glenn Close, The Wife
  5. Actor in supporting role - Mahershala Ali, Green Book
  6. Actress in supporting role - Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Unfortunately I had not seen any of above mentioned movies (other than Roma) till now. No wonder there is less excitement about Oscars this year. The new category Academy tried to create (Popular movie) and then cancelled would have definitely gone to Black Panther. Let's see how my predictions do.
Next week is also interesting on international political front with Trump and Kim meeting in Hanoi and US-China trade talks deadline of March 1. President Trump will make sure that there is enough optics to show progress and will claim (which to some extent is true) that he is the only President who could make this happen. That brings me to the title of my blog. 
Definition of bull in a china shop: a person who breaks things or who often makes mistakes or causes damage in situations that require careful thinking or behavior.
You know who can match to this definition! But I am looking at this from different angle.
Let's look at "Bull in China Stocks"
Chinese markets are in downdraft since it reached all time highs in 2015 when Shanghai Stock Exchange index reached 5131 on Jun 1, 2015. Now it stands at just over 2800. Almost same level as S&P500 index. So in next 12 months, which index is going to do better? While S&P will cross 3000 this year for another 6-7% growth, Shanghai index will do even better. Once trade agreement is reached, Chinese stocks will continue its momentum since their valuations are still relatively low (avg PE of 11 compared to 15-16 for S&P). In next 12 months, Chinese stocks will return at least few percentage points more than S&P. So it should be almost no-brainer to have some exposure thru ETFs like FXI, KWEB or even stocks like BZUN, NIO, BABA, IQ (only after doing your own due diligence).
Enjoy the Oscars!
/Shyam





Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Politics and Gamesmanship of TikTok!

TikTok is less than 3 hours from going dark on USA's east coast if TikTok owner Bytedance (and Chinese Government) follows thru its "bluff" to honor the law " Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" which goes into effect on Jan 19, 2025. And suddenly there is lots of politics and gamesmanship around TikTok.. Let's look at the players and their positions US Congress: The " TikTok Ban" law was passed by congress with bipartisan support and coincidently it goes into effect one day before new administration takes charge. Everyone knew the exact date and time of oath taking ceremony of new President...but maybe the congress did not think that there would be change of President and did not bother to put effective date post new government taking charge...that created a window of 36 hours of "law being in effect" unless... President Biden: Biden himself did not think that he won't be President for 2nd term. S...
Post a Comment
Read more