Skip to main content

Super Bowl of Earnings, Fed and Employment!

Super Bowl of NFL is just a week away when Patriots would be appearing 9th time since 2001 and Rams will be playing their first since moving to City of Angels! Who would win? It's match up between experience vs youth. Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady (age 41) and head coach Bill Belichick (age 66) have been playing/coaching football before their respective counterparts Rams' quarterback Jared Goff (Age 24 - Cal graduate. Go Bears!) and head coach Sean McVay (Age 33) were even born! In a way it's representation of today's society including corporate world. When it comes to which team I support - I am split. I stayed in New England for one year so would like to see Patriots win. But then Rams is now California team with quarterback from UC Berkeley (my alma mater). So I am just going to enjoy the game and let the best team win! But before we get to Super Bowl Sunday, let's look at this week's Super Bowl of economic events starting with earnings.
This week can easily be called as Super Bowl of earnings when 114 S&P companies are reporting representing maybe close to $4-5 Trillion market cap. The companies span across almost all industries but most important earnings to watch are:

  • Monday: Caterpillar 
  • Tuesday: Apple, AMD, Amgen, Biogen, Pfizer, 3M, Verizon
  • Wednesday: Alibaba, Microsoft, Facebook, AT&T, Tesla, Visa
  • Thursday: Amazon, GE, UPS, Mastercard
  • Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Merck
These companies are who's who and can really provide where world economy is heading so watch out for their guidance. In addition to these earning reports, there are two critical events:
  • Wednesday: FOMC meeting conclusion and guidance on direction of interest rates. 
  • Friday: Employment report. Due to shutdown (glad it's over for now), the numbers may be little skewed but should show unemployment steady at 3.8%
With so many events, what should one do when it comes to investing in markets? If you take long view, markets are still about 10% below all time high (even after rising nearly 13% since its recent low on Christmas eve). As I wrote in "Third Year is The Best", things will be ok in 2019 and one can tiptoe in the markets depending on his risk/reward profile.
Enjoy the Super Bowl of earnings and actual Super Bowl!
/Shyam


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

Elections and Rotations!

2024 will be known as an important year in terms of elections (97 nations covering half the population) across the major countries in the world. We are only halfway thru the year and already some key nations have gone thru elections and voters have indicated their preference for change (in a way). Let's take a look at few. India - Modi's BJP started with lots of enthusiasm with slogans of "Modi ki Guarantee" and "400 paar" (more than 400) seats (out of 543). Indian voters (which I considered one of the most smartest) gave reality check to Modi and BJP by reducing BJP count to 240 (from 303 in previous parliament) forcing it to form coalition government. I have lot more detailed hypothesis on these results (but not here). Almost everyone (including me) got their predictions wrong and lost some friendly bets. Indians want balance between "Strong, Prosperous, Proud" India with "Inclusive, Employment and Harmony". Modi and BJP are quick learn...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more