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October "NO" Surprise!

In politics "October Surprise" means any political event orchestrated (or apparently orchestrated) in the month before an election, in the hopes of affecting the outcome (from Wikipedia). In stock markets, October is known for sharp market corrections as seen during so many times(1929, 1987, 2008 and so on). So this October, its no surprise that we are having some gut-wrenching correction which exactly started on first day of October. Today and next couple of days would be critical in terms of momentum selling before it settles down and get ready for year-end rally. President Trump is calling fed "crazy" which almost feels like Turkey President directing its central bank what to do. (another similarity: both these presidents have their son-in-law in key government position). Last few weeks interesting political drama unfolded in which both parties tried to score some points with their constituencies by using Judge Kavanaugh's confirmation to Supreme Court. Mid-term elections seems to be heading for split government in which house will be controlled by democrats whereas GOP will keep Senate majority. And it may be good for markets. As they say "Gridlock = Goldilock" since no one party can do any major damage. In fact President Trump may be able to get its Infrastructure bill passed with house democrats and give another boost to already hot economy in which unemployment reached 49 year low.
As investor, what should one do? If you are invested in market, don't panic and stay invested. Exactly same sell-off happened in Feb and markets nicely recovered from that. It's going to be repeat of that. Markets would start gaining back as Oct nears end and by year end it will be high single digit return for 2018. If you are waiting to jump in market, timing could be tricky since finding bottom is always difficult. So I would recommend average costing over multiple weeks/months. That's all for mid-week update
/Shyam

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