Skip to main content

Race to Trillion!

The earnings season is almost getting wrapped up and race to become first trillion $ company is getting to finish line. During dot-com bubble, there were couple of contenders mentioned (Cisco, Microsoft) but then bubble busted and these companies lost the momentum in that race. During last few years, the race is back on and most likely in 2018 we will see first even trillion $ company. Here are real contenders in that order:

  1. Apple: $927 Billion
  2. Amazon: $780 Billion
  3. Microsoft: $750 Billion
  4. Alphabet: $764 Billion
  5. Facebook: $550 Billion
Not surprisingly that all of these are tech companies and within themselves they have market cap approaching $4 Trillion (exceeding GDP of all but top 4 countries - US, China, Japan and Germany). Given the momentum Apple has regained after latest earnings results, the crown would most likely go to Apple to become first company to cross this milestone in 2018 followed by Amazon either in 2018 or 2019. Remaining two companies (Google and Microsoft) also would cross this milestone in 2019. (Aramaco would be first trillion $ valuation company at its IPO). Reaching the height of valuation is one thing - what happens after that is more important. How big these companies can get in terms of their valuations? As long as these companies change the ways people live, play and work and create amazing products/services and generate loads of profits, they would keep on reaching new milestones of valuations.
After weeks and ups and downs with increased volatility, finally markets have come back to positive for the year. Earnings season has been reasonably good with help from Trump tax cuts. President Trump has created less uncertainties - in fact he is doing reasonably ok on US-North Korea summit in Jun. Unemployment is lowest in two decades, interest rates are still low and FED is on track to raise rates at steady pace (2 more this year followed by 3 next year). So it almost feels like Goldilocks economy. I am staying with my recommendations which I did few months back in "Bet on BET (Biotech, Energy, Tech)" In particular I am really excited that finally energy would catch up with rest of market. So consider XBI ($90), XLE ($75) and XLK($68) for possible double-digit returns for rest of 2018.
Happy Mother's Day to All Mothers!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...

The Politics and Gamesmanship of TikTok!

TikTok is less than 3 hours from going dark on USA's east coast if TikTok owner Bytedance (and Chinese Government) follows thru its "bluff" to honor the law " Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" which goes into effect on Jan 19, 2025. And suddenly there is lots of politics and gamesmanship around TikTok.. Let's look at the players and their positions US Congress: The " TikTok Ban" law was passed by congress with bipartisan support and coincidently it goes into effect one day before new administration takes charge. Everyone knew the exact date and time of oath taking ceremony of new President...but maybe the congress did not think that there would be change of President and did not bother to put effective date post new government taking charge...that created a window of 36 hours of "law being in effect" unless... President Biden: Biden himself did not think that he won't be President for 2nd term. S...