As holiday shopping season is upon us, millions of people would be shopping for gifts for their loved ones and for themselves. One week from now, Americans would have finished their Thanksgiving dinners and shopped till drop during "Black Friday" followed by "Cyber Monday" and "Terrific Tuesday" and "Wonderful Wednesdays" and so on. Retailers can be quite creative in coining the terms as we had seen with "Singles Day (11/11)" in China and "Prime Day (7/11) by Amazon". Thanks to Expanding Amazon Jungle, retail landscape is changing dramatically. In last 12 months, Amazon stock is up by 50% while combined market cap of key retailers (Target, Macy's and others) have gone down by 40%. Market is sending clear signals who is winning retail wars. And then there is Walmart. Last week Walmart published it's quarterly results and surprised everyone with kind of progress it had made. So what does it has to do with "Rumble in The Jungle"?
For sports fan and history buffs, one would know about historic boxing fight between World Heavyweight Champion George Foreman and challenger Mohammad Ali in Zaire, Africa in 1974. This fight was promoted as "Rumble in the Jungle" and many consider it as greatest sporting event of the century (Indians would not agree since for Indians India's 1983 Cricket World Cup win against West Indies is still the greatest sporting event of all time). Ali won the boxing fight by knockout in 8th round.
Rumble in the Jungle is good analogy to look at emerging retail fight between Walmart vs Amazon (I did consider David vs Goliath but it does not fit since both companies are so big). Let's look at key attributes of both companies:
Amazon:
- Sales: Over $150 Billion growing at double digit
- Profits: Does not matter since its in investment phase for last 20 years (EBITDA: $12 Billion)
- Market Cap: Over $550 Billion
- Key strategy pillars:
- Leader in online shopping
- Prime membership
- Entry in in-store/grocery with Whole Foods
- AWS - crown jewel
- Relentless focus on customer
Walmart:
- Sales: Close to $500 Billion growing at 1%
- Profits: $13 Billion (EBITDA: $32 Billion)
- Market Cap: Close to $300 Billion
- Key strategy pillars:
- Leader in in-store/grocery shopping
- Excellent presence with stores in three formats (Neighborhood market, Superstore and Sam's Club)
- Everyday low-prices
- Good momentum in online presence with Jet.com
As you can see, both companies have key strengths which have started producing results and getting rewarded. Both are preparing for fight which would go on for a decade (boxing fight went for 8 rounds). Unlike the boxing fight, there would not be knockout in this fight. So looking all the way into 2030, both of these companies would be winners. However in the rumble, other companies (watch out Target, Macy's, Kohl's and so on) may get trampled. What does it mean to making investment decision? If "retail" is the sector you get excited about, I would recommend picking one of both of these companies for investment and stay away from other retailers (Home Depot and Costco may be exception to this).
Have a great Thanksgiving!
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