Skip to main content

Amazon "Jungle" Keeps Expanding!

Normally I don't blog about my work and company I work at (Cisco). However this time I will make small exception. This week Cisco launched one of the biggest launches in company's history with Catalyst 9000, DNA/SDA and ETA. I am proud to mention that my team (along with some other teams) have been working on these intuitive products and solutions for last two years (Network.Intuitive). Congrats to all my team members!
Environmentalists would be very happy if real Amazon jungle stops shrinking (due to human activity) and expands in the way Amazon company is expanding its reaches. Amazon is one company which has proven everyone wrong. I am sure there is not a single person in the world (other than Jeff Bezos) who had belief in this company when it went IPO in 1997 and it's journey as public company over 20 years. If there is such person who had invested $10000 would be worth close to $5 Million today (assuming he/she has lived thru all ups and downs). No wonder Jeff Bezos would be richest person and first one to be worth more than $100 Billion before end of 2017. Hats off to Jeff! He is "Warren Buffet" of our generation! Amazon's decision of buying Whole Foods was based on principle of "Everyone has to eat" and Amazon can make it as simple as what it had done for millions of items to "grocery". The kind of impact this move would have is enormous even at macro-economic level in areas like
  • Lower inflation
  • Lower energy needs (less car-trips to malls and now grocery shops)
  • Productivity gains (due to savings in time)
  • Higher-paying jobs (from cash-register jobs to data analysis jobs)
Economists and even Fed governors would need to start incorporating "Amazon" effects in their models while projecting these macro-economic indicators. 
So where does Amazon goes from here - let's make some bold predictions for 2027
  • Amazon sales would be over $250 Billion per year
  • Amazon profits would be over $10-15 Billion per year
  • Valuation  would be $ 900 Billion to 1 Trillion
  • Could be most valuable company at that time
Switching gears to my thoughts on markets:
Generally markets have been slowly inching upwards with lowest volatility (as evidenced by VIX below 10). This is happening despite policy uncertainty in US. Would this be "calm before storm" similar to what happened in 1987, 1997 and 2007. There seems to be pattern with these years and we are in 2017. So watch out for direction post Q2 results and beware of Sept/Oct. It would be prudent to take some profits off from your gains and wait till late Oct to invest.
If you have to invest during summer, it may be good time to rotate from "best performing" sectors like "tech/bio-tech" to "worst-perfuming sectors" like energy. This is contrarian advice but goes with Buffet's principle.
Have a great weekend!
/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...
Post a Comment
Read more

2026: The Year of Convergence – Melt-up, Moonshots, or Mid-cycle Correction?

Happy New Year! After another period of self-imposed hibernation from the blog—partly due to the festivals, travel, intertia and partly to watch the dust settle on a chaotic 2025—I decided to use the quiet of this New Year’s morning to finally reboot.  Looking back at my October post,  “Clicks to Tokens,”  the hunch about the AI theme held firm. We spent much of 2025 debating whether we were in 1998 or 2000. As we enter 2026, the answer seems to be "neither and both." We have the roaring optimism of the 1920s fueled by "Silicon Spirits," but with the high-speed volatility of the 2020s. So, as the calendar flips, what is in store for 2026? Markets may experience melt-up (S&P touching 8000),  with some moonshots (like SpaceX and OpenAI) IPOs or even see mid-cycle correction bringing down S&P to 6000. That's a wide range and will be decided by Four R's... Here are my thoughts on the " Four R’s ":  Rates, Robots, Rotations, and Real Assets. 1. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more