New Hampshire gave a notice to USA - be a ready to be Trumped and Berned!
Get months back no one would have thought that it would come to this. Everyone was thinking that it would be 1991 again where Bush and Clinton would cruise to win their party's nomination and eventually Hillary Clinton would become first Madame President. In my opinion, that would still be the case (Hillary becoming president) but the path looks much more curved than straight line. Of course that makes this election season very interesting. Anytime I put on CNN, they are only talking about primary elections - as if nothing else is happening in world (and CNN calls itself as world news headquarters!)
Similar to elections, markets are also becoming very unpredictable with hundred points move on DOW becoming norm. Banks, energy, new high-tech (like LinkedIn, Yelp, Twitter and so on), commodities, Chinese markets all of these are predictably going down. Currencies are doing exact opposite of what central banks are trying to instrument (check BOJ's negative rate impact on Yen). It feels like currencies are racing to the bottom to rejig their economies. Financial and investing world is much more scary than first half of 2015. So the question is - is trend of going down continue or we are near bottom. No one knows. But if "7-year" pattern continues, we may be near bottom as we had seen during March 2009. But in these uncertain times, it's best to be on sidelines till markets sort themselves out. Till then enjoy the political circus!
/Shyam
Get months back no one would have thought that it would come to this. Everyone was thinking that it would be 1991 again where Bush and Clinton would cruise to win their party's nomination and eventually Hillary Clinton would become first Madame President. In my opinion, that would still be the case (Hillary becoming president) but the path looks much more curved than straight line. Of course that makes this election season very interesting. Anytime I put on CNN, they are only talking about primary elections - as if nothing else is happening in world (and CNN calls itself as world news headquarters!)
Similar to elections, markets are also becoming very unpredictable with hundred points move on DOW becoming norm. Banks, energy, new high-tech (like LinkedIn, Yelp, Twitter and so on), commodities, Chinese markets all of these are predictably going down. Currencies are doing exact opposite of what central banks are trying to instrument (check BOJ's negative rate impact on Yen). It feels like currencies are racing to the bottom to rejig their economies. Financial and investing world is much more scary than first half of 2015. So the question is - is trend of going down continue or we are near bottom. No one knows. But if "7-year" pattern continues, we may be near bottom as we had seen during March 2009. But in these uncertain times, it's best to be on sidelines till markets sort themselves out. Till then enjoy the political circus!
/Shyam
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