Skip to main content

May the Force be With You

I have taken such a long break from my blogging that it almost felt like waiting for Star Wars movie or interest rate hike by FED. Both events: new Star Wars movie after 10 years and interest rate hike by Fed after 9 years. What a timing - both these events happened in span of less than 48 hours!
These events and upcoming new year inspired to start blogging again.
Year 2015 have been tough for my investing suggestions. I just looked it my recommendations and collectively they are down by about 15% (assuming shadow portfolio of equal amounts invested at start of year). It's bad - there is no other way to say it. I almost started doubted my own analysis.
Hopefully you did your own diligence and did not lose as much. But that won't deter me to continue my passion of analyzing market trends and come up with some investment ideas. Here are few. I will follow up for 2016 recommendations in next blog.

  • Sunny outlook for solar and wind - This was another significant development last week that congress extended green energy tax credits by another 3 to 5 years (they were supposed to be expired by end of 2016). This gave a major support to solar stocks many of them doubled in 1 week. However there are still some "relative" bargains. I am considering SUNE ($6.5), GLBL ($5.5) and TERP ($12). These are from same management team which really messed up with their balance sheet and got punished by market by pushing these stocks by nearly 70-80% in span of 6 months. Finally management wised up and started to pull back. This should reduce their bankruptcy risk and could give these stocks at least 50% run in 2016. For GLBL and TERP, there is nice 10%+ yield (provided they do not cut)
  • Biotech - this has been one of my favorite sector. Given trends like older demographics, better early detection mechanisms, wider covered pool due to Obamacare and FDA willing to grant approvals for unmet needs, this sector had good long-term prospects. However picking winners and losers are like picking lottery numbers unless one has excellent background in this area (which I don't). Having said that I am excited about biotech focused on cancer areas (due to some personal reasons) and especially interested in immunotherapy. Few names to mention are BLUE ($60), KITE ($60) and risky company CLVS ($32). I also like PTCT ($32) which focus on unmet need for DMD
  • Energy - this has been bummer (and cause for major losses) for me and I have been completely wrong about quick recovery in energy sector. Given that OPEC has absolutely no influence and shell revolution in USA, oil glut would continue till crude falls closer to $25. It's repeat of 1980's. So it would be at least year or two before energy sector recovers. If you have long-term horizon (5+ years), then picking XLE around $50 may be wise move.
Coming back to StarWars - it broke all time records and is on way to become only 2nd movie to worldwide gross of $2B. Only Disney can put such an excitement in 30 year old franchise. I just caught up with Episode 4, 5 and 6 over weekend and now looking forward to seeing "Force Awakens" today evening. Next blog would be on 2016 recommendations - till then let the Force be with you!
/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Clicks to Tokens: Will 2026 Echo 1998's Boom or 2000's Bust?

My "blogging" was in hibernation last 8 months due to my self-imposed restraint given the environment as well as built-in inertia to get started despite so many interesting events and markets reaching all time highs after taking a big dump around "Liberation Day" in Apr...Around that time I had the blog ready that it would be repeat of Mar/Apr 2020 panic and recovery during onset of Covid Pandemic. The hunch happened to be correct and I was glad that I could keep and take some positions which I am still holding especially around AI theme. But that was then...as 2025 is about to wrap up in 10+ weeks, let's look at what's in store for rest of 2025 and 2026. And what's better time than to start writing again just before one of the most important week on the calendar with multiple key events coming up next week... Fed meeting to decide the course of interest rates - it's almost guaranteed that Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (2nd time in 2025) and...
Post a Comment
Read more

2026: The Year of Convergence – Melt-up, Moonshots, or Mid-cycle Correction?

Happy New Year! After another period of self-imposed hibernation from the blog—partly due to the festivals, travel, intertia and partly to watch the dust settle on a chaotic 2025—I decided to use the quiet of this New Year’s morning to finally reboot.  Looking back at my October post,  “Clicks to Tokens,”  the hunch about the AI theme held firm. We spent much of 2025 debating whether we were in 1998 or 2000. As we enter 2026, the answer seems to be "neither and both." We have the roaring optimism of the 1920s fueled by "Silicon Spirits," but with the high-speed volatility of the 2020s. So, as the calendar flips, what is in store for 2026? Markets may experience melt-up (S&P touching 8000),  with some moonshots (like SpaceX and OpenAI) IPOs or even see mid-cycle correction bringing down S&P to 6000. That's a wide range and will be decided by Four R's... Here are my thoughts on the " Four R’s ":  Rates, Robots, Rotations, and Real Assets. 1. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more