Skip to main content

Happy Holidays!

Happy holidays to all. Year 2014 is almost ending. As we close on 2014, it was interesting to see that last week became kind of historical week with 3 different "communist" countries in news for different reasons.
  1. Russia - its currency ruble dropped by nearly 50% in last 6 months. Last week was capitulation when it ranged from 60 to 80. That's unheard in currency markets. Has ruble stabilized around 60. I doubt it. But worst may be over and it should hover between 40 to 60 for next few months unless Putin pulls up something like what he did in last spring. Oil dropping also did not hep Russia. 
  2. Cuba - Cuba was in news for good reasons, After nearly 55 years, US and Cuba has re-opened discussions and started process of normalizing relations. This could be good news to Cuba and America. Americans would be flocking to Cuba for vacations and buying lots of Cuban cigars
  3. North Korea - Looks like North Koreans found more effective way (than building nuclear bomb) to attack on "freedom of speech". SONY and theatre owners decision not to release movie "The INTERVIEW" is being interpreted as attack on "freedom of speech" which in a sense is correct. This could set dangerous trend unless countries and companies are ready for it and react to more wisely than what happened in this case
Oil continues to be on "slippery" slope. Last week it may have found some footing after nearly touching 5 year low of $55 (for brent). There was definitely fear in oil markets as well as any company dealing in energy. As Buffet said, be greedy when there is fear in market. So here are some potential stock picks which are very risky but could be rewarding (if they survive)
  1. FEYE (around $30-$32) - Cybersecurity play
  2. LNCO (around $11) - energy play with very large dividend. Even if dividend gets cut in half, could still be above 10% yield
  3. EXXI (around $3) - this may not survive and hence it is selling at $3 as if it's going to declare BK which is real possibility. However if it survives (similar to what it did in 2008/2009), this could easily double
  4. RBL (around $14) and GREK (around $14) - Bet on Russia and Greece not getting worse
  5. PBR (around $7) - another oil play. All worst possible news about oil down, corruption, dis-appointment at election results in Brazil have brought down this by 60%. What else could go wrong?
  6. CSIQ ($21) and JKS ($18) - Chinese solar plays which have come down in sympathy with energy sector. These two could go back above $30 by summer 2015
All of these are very-very high risk bets. So be careful.

Happy holidays to all. 

/Shyam

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 = Is it going to be 1997 or 2000?

Happy Holidays... After 5 months of hibernation with no real reason than writing block, I decided to use quiet morning of Christmas day to start writing again. Lot has happened in last 5 months - in particular release of Animal Spirits with Fed starting interest rate reduction cycle and historic victory of President Trump for 2nd term. As the year turns into 2025 and stock markets at all time high, one would wonder, what's next?  To answer this, one needs to look back at 1920s and 1990s to give us some context on where markets may be headed. 1920s saw invention of televisions, radio, wider adoption of cars, vacuums, penicillin and many other which we consider household items now. These inventions created roaring 20s with markets going up by 500% eventually leading to crash of 1929. However during mid-20s, markets keep going up due to excitement of these inventions and end of World War-1 and Spanish Flu Pandemic. 1990s also saw many inventions - the key being launch of Netscape in 1...
Post a Comment
Read more

And the Oscar goes to...

It's Oscar Sunday and time for predictions for few categories - before I digress into talking about drama in DC or markets.  First of all, I want to recognize the damage LA fires have done to the beloved areas of Los Angeles and impacted families across all spectrums. My heart goes out to them and wish them recovery and rebuilding of their lives... This year's Oscar nominees and post nomination period had been interesting to say the least. Due to this, the field is wide open in almost all categories and that's what makes prediction game so interesting. Just to set expectations, I would consider a win if I get even 50% predictions correct given the dynamics of nominees this year. So here are my predictions - "And the Oscar goes to..." Best Picture - Anora (surprise could be "The Brutalist") Best Director - Sean Baker for "Anora" (Surprise could be Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist") Best Actor - Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist"...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Politics and Gamesmanship of TikTok!

TikTok is less than 3 hours from going dark on USA's east coast if TikTok owner Bytedance (and Chinese Government) follows thru its "bluff" to honor the law " Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" which goes into effect on Jan 19, 2025. And suddenly there is lots of politics and gamesmanship around TikTok.. Let's look at the players and their positions US Congress: The " TikTok Ban" law was passed by congress with bipartisan support and coincidently it goes into effect one day before new administration takes charge. Everyone knew the exact date and time of oath taking ceremony of new President...but maybe the congress did not think that there would be change of President and did not bother to put effective date post new government taking charge...that created a window of 36 hours of "law being in effect" unless... President Biden: Biden himself did not think that he won't be President for 2nd term. S...
Post a Comment
Read more